'He looks well handicapped now' - who are the dangers to Ultima favourite Meetingofthewaters?

The Ultima is ever more like a plant outgrowing its pot. It is overshadowed in prestige by the four Grade 1s on the same card, not to mention what is to come at Cheltenham later this week. It thus struggles to get due recognition as one of the best staying handicap chases around.

The graphic below tells the story. Comparing the Ultima to other major spring handicap chases it has exactly one superior, and that is the Grand National. On average, you do not have to be so far ahead of your mark to win the Scottish National, Midlands National or bet365 Gold Cup.

That tells you that you should leave any remotely exposed fancies for your Placepot. The winner will likely be chucked in. Even the obvious recent exception, 11-year-old Vintage Clouds, had already been second in the race off a higher mark.

The popularity of unexposed chasers like Meetingofthewaters, Trelawne and Chianti Classico is not hard to explain. All three have already had a crack in good races, while there is a suspicion that their trainers play a part in their popularity. Trelawne and Chianti Classico are both handled by Kim Bailey, who often targets a novice at this race. Meetingofthewaters is trained by Willie Mullins, which needs little further explanation.

Weveallbeencaught is in a similar category. He is a bigger price, but has managed to hide his light better while getting in plenty of experience at Cheltenham. Three pre-Christmas runs at the track in small fields, then rested for the festival? If a Mullins or a Bailey had pulled that trick instead of Nigel Twiston-Davies, this horse might have been the talk of the preview circuit.

If you want to rely on known form, The Goffer has been the most popular choice. He was fourth last year. Those who finished in front of him have gone on to better things, yet he gets into this year's race off a lower mark.

The presence of last year's third Monbeg Genius means The Goffer is not your only option if backing previous form in the race. You would need to forgive a poor recent run at Kelso, but much bigger odds about a no less interesting horse makes it a reasonable question to weigh up.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

RP Recommends: how to bet on the Ultima

By Tom Park, audience editor

Place terms are your friend in an open affair and once again Sky Bet are offering the best terms with seven places on offer. I find it hard to see Chianti Classico out of the frame, while at a huge price strong stayer Kitty's Light is worth chancing that he makes the top seven.

• RP Recommends: Sky Bet

Bailey the best of British

The Ultima is a rare race at the Cheltenham Festival which is dominated by British trainers, and Kim Bailey looks to be best placed for the home team as he saddles a strong-looking two-pronged attack as he bids to win the ultra-competitive handicap for the second time.

The Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup-winning trainer won the contest with Betty's Boy in 1999 and leads the British-trained challenge this year with Chianti Classico and Trelawne.

Chianti Classico, runner-up at Kempton on his last start in January, is the choice of Bailey's number-one rider David Bass, and the trainer believes the seven-year-old is up to the task of tackling this company on just his fourth chase start.

Chianti Classico: a leading fancy in the Ultima for Kim BaileyCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

Bailey said: "Chianti Classico ran a good race last time despite finishing second and he's been doing everything right over fences. He's had only three chase starts, but he's a little terrier and won't be out of place in a race like this."

Trelawne, who finished third behind leading Plate hope Crebilly at Exeter last month, will be ridden by jockeys' championship leader Harry Cobden, who comes in for the spare ride as he bids to partner a first winner for Bailey at the 12th attempt.

Bailey added: "Trelawne should love the ground. He does have his own way of doing things, but is getting better with experience. Harry's never ridden me a winner, so I don't know how good that is! Hopefully we might be able to break that trend."

Of his two runners, Bailey added: "They've had good preps for this. I'm delighted with how they're going and now it's just a question of which one runs a better race out of the two."

Mullins bids to fill rare blank

When Paul Byrne and JP McManus do business it pays to take note. Meetingofthewaters, the general 6-1 joint-favourite for the Ultima, is the latest horse to swap Byrne's pale blue silks for McManus's famed green and gold hoops and follows in the wake of The Shunter, who won last year's Cesarewitch, and leading National Hunt Chase contender Corbetts Cross.

Meetingofthewaters has created a strong impression in five starts for Willie Mullins, landing a Cork beginners' chase in good style on his third outing, before powering four and a half lengths clear to scoop first prize in the valuable Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas under Danny Mullins.

A point, bumper and hurdles winner, Meetingofthewaters unseated at the first fence at the Dublin Racing Festival last time and races off a 17lb higher mark than for his Paddy Power Chase victory. The vibes are nevertheless strong about the seven-year-old, but the Irish have failed to win the Ultima since Ruby Walsh steered Dun Doire home for Tony Martin in 2006.

Meetingofthewaters is set for a big spring with the Grand National also on his agenda, and his trainer is confident the demands of this race will play to his strengths.

"He has some great form to his name this season," said Mullins, who is remarkably seeking his first victory in handicap chase company at the Cheltenham Festival. "His target is the Randox Grand National at Aintree, but this race looks well within his scope and I'd give him every chance."

What they say

Joe Tizzard, trainer of Eldorado Allen
We're using Freddie Gingell to take 5lb off his back, which seems the obvious thing to do. If he runs to the form of his Coral Gold Cup fourth he'd have a chance of making the frame. He has a good record at the Cheltenham Festival, he's been second and third, and has the ability to place off top weight. We're not here to make up the numbers.

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Run Wild Fred, The Goffer, Minella Crooner and Gevrey
Jack Kennedy is on The Goffer and he looks to have a great chance. He ran very well in the race last year and probably just hit the front a little too soon. He won a charity race nicely the other day and seems in fine form with himself. Minella Crooner was very disappointing in the Bobbyjo Chase and needs to bounce back, while Run Wild Fred and Gevrey also have plenty on their plates.

Gavin Cromwell, trainer of Stumptown
He ran a huge race in the Kim Muir last season. He's gone up considerably in the handicap and won at Cheltenham on New Year's Day with blinkers on for the first time. It was only a five-runner field, but he won well. The British handicapper gave him 6lb for that so I don't think he's badly treated. He's in great nick and the ground should be fine.

Jonjo O'Neill Jr, rider of Monbeg Genius
Kelso didn't go to plan and the ground wasn't soft enough for him. We're hoping he can come on from that. He's in good form and if you forget about his Kelso run you'd really fancy his chances.

Henry de Bromhead, trainer of Eklat De Rire
He's been a bit disappointing but I just get the impression over the last little while that he is coming back to himself.

Joseph O'Brien, trainer of Busselton
A reproduction of his run in the Paddy Power Chase would give him an each-way chance so hopefully we can get him back to that sort of form.

Ben Pauling, trainer of Twig
He'd prefer better ground. He doesn't have everything in his favour, but he acts around Cheltenham and this is the race we've trained him for.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Excello
The ground was too quick for him over two and a half miles last time, so an extra half-mile on slower ground should be ideal. He's in very good order.

Nicky Richards, trainer of Famous Bridge
He's had a good season and was unlucky when unseating at Haydock last month. He's in grand form and won two nice handicaps earlier in the season. He handles soft ground very well and I hope there's a bit more rain to come.

Willy Twiston-Davies, assistant to Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Weveallbeencaught
He looks well handicapped now, especially on his form earlier in the season. We feel he's blossoming in his training and I'm hopeful of a big run.
Reporting by Matt Rennie

Cheltenham Tuesday previews:

1.30: Tullyhill 'the finished article' says Willie Mullins as he prepares assault on wide-open Supreme 

2.10: 'We put our heads together and came up with the Arkle' - Gaelic Warrior leads Closutton charge 

3.30: State Man a certainty for many - but Nicky Henderson 'quite optimistic' his super-sub can lay down a challenge 

4.10: Will 'banker of the week' Lossiemouth handle the step up in trip and land another festival success? 

4.50: 'I think he'll run well at a price' - analysis and trainer quotes for the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 

5.30: 'I just thought he was made for this' - National Hunt Chase carries extra significance for Willie Mullins 

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