'He is the one to back today' - expert analysis and trainer quotes for competitive handicap chase

The record of favourites in a race should never be taken as a trend on its own, but it can be a symptom of something else. This contest, which in the last decade has averaged fewer than 12 runners, has had just one winning joint-favourite in that time.

The suggestion is that this is weak by the standard of Premier handicaps, and the most interesting runners have bigger targets on their agenda. Malina Girl last year was the first horse younger than seven to win this in 14 years. It is more telling to note that in the meantime only a dozen or so had tried.

There are only three seven-year-olds in the line-up and two of them are second-season chasers. Abuffalosoldier has been sensibly placed. Given his record at Newbury, connections might have considered the Coral Gold Cup but this is a much more realistic assignment. 

Similar comments apply to Surrey Quest, who won over the Coral Gold Cup's course and distance last season. He was later beaten a nose in the Scottish Grand National. There is a good chance he is being built up to tackle a marathon on softer ground. The field has a decent number who are avowed good-ground stayers and they may be the ones to focus on.

Surrey Quest (right): reported to be in good formCredit: Edward Whitaker

The eye is immediately drawn to Manothepeople. He won over a similar distance on the New course in April, on what turned out to be Paddy Brennan's last ride and continued his revival when third at Chepstow last month, shaping as though the run would bring him on. 

That fitness gives Manothepeople an edge over other good-ground horses of interest, like Undersupervision. He is the one to back today, while keeping an eye out for the likes of Surrey Quest and Abuffalosoldier. They have more likely profiles to build on the outing this winter.
Analysis by Keith Melrose

What they say

Kim Bailey, trainer of Does He Know
He won the race two years ago and he's in a good place going into it. I thought he ran very well last time out and goes on any ground.

Toby Lawes, trainer of Surrey Quest
It's his first run since the Scottish National but he's had a smooth prep and goes there in great form. It's a tricky place to start and he's never run at Cheltenham. He can handle the ground but he prefers it softer to make it more of a stamina test. 

Fergal O'Brien, trainer of Manothepeople
He's in good form and had a nice run around Chepstow on his first start of the season. He likes Cheltenham, although his best form is on the New course.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Undersupervision
He's in good form for his comeback but he might need this run. He likes Cheltenham and he should like the ground.

Warren Greatrex, trainer of Abuffalosoldier
We're expecting a big run. We thought he'd need his first run and he went better than we expected when second. He's improved a lot for it and is going there in great form and we've got a light weight. The cheekpieces are back on to keep him sharp and the better the ground, the better his chance. He'll get the trip, travels and jumps well and there's plenty in his favour.

Ben Pauling, trainer of Bangers And Cash
He's in good order at home and hopefully they get the rain they say is coming on Sunday before racing which would help his chances.

Joe Tizzard, trainer of Rose Of Arcadia
She ran well at Exeter on her first run of the season and I think she'll improve for that. We'll probably ride her positively off a low weight. It's a competitive race but that's what you expect for a £75,000 contest. The ground will be fine, she stays all day and should have a nice chance.

Harry Fry, trainer of Hymac
We were keen to come here after he won at Cheltenham over the same trip in April. We got a nice opportunity for a prep run at Newton Abbot and he won well and he's all set for a big run. He's versatile in terms of ground and we know he stays, the only negative would be he is 3lb out of the handicap.

Read our Sunday previews:

1.45 Cheltenham: 'We know he likes Cheltenham' - Peaky Boy and Leader In The Park clash in race with good history 

2.30 Navan: 'Jack was very keen to ride him' - American Mike leads Gordon Elliott's 11-strong Troytown team 

2.35 Auteuil: Il Est Francais tackles France's King George as star's Kempton claims are tested 

3.05 Navan: Cheltenham Festival aces Slade Steel and Better Days Ahead clash in Navan beginners' chase 

3.30 Cheltenham: 'This was the plan ever since we got such a nice mark' - key trainer insight for a fascinating Greatwood Hurdle 

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