'He has a great chance' - Paul Nicholls expects big things from Hitman

The Denman Chase punches well above its weight as a Gold Cup trial. Since 2010, nine horses have gone from this race to make the first four in the Cheltenham Gold Cup compared with eight from the Irish Gold Cup and 11 from the Betfair Chase. The comparative numbers for Britain's other leading Grade 2s, the Cotswold and Charlie Hall, are five and zero.

While that is the general case, the specifics of this year are not so promising. Eldorado Allen is the only one of the seven runners with a Gold Cup entry, and he is a 100-1 shot. He tends to stick to Graded races, whereas most of his rivals tend to mix and match Graded races with handicaps. But that can hardly be said to be atypical of a race that is most readily associated with Denman and Native River.

The penalty structure this year favours horses like Fanion D'Estruval and Hitman over Eldorado Allen, who carries the maximum 8lb penalty having won this race last year. Since then, Fanion D'Estruval has placed in an Ascot Chase and a Rowland Meyrick, while Hitman has been second in the Melling Chase and Old Roan.

On this season's form Hitman should be tough to beat if he stays this far. He was just touched off from a mark of 159 in the Old Roan and had Ga Law (now rated 10lb higher) in behind. The stamina question was not addressed in the King George, in which he was never competitive. Newbury might be more galloping than Kempton, but it is not a stiff track.

Sam Brown and Does He Know carry 4lb penalties for winning Grade 3s at Aintree and Cheltenham respectively, and have run just as well in Grade 2s – Sam Brown was third in the Charlie Hall, Does He Know won last year's Reynoldstown – and Sam Brown does not seem as reliant on the mud as when he was younger.

Kalashnikov: ran well before tiring in the Rowland Meyrick at WetherbyCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

The last of those who cuts it in handicaps and Graded races is Kalashnikov. He was fourth in the 2021 Ryanair Chase on his penultimate start, and he shaped very much as though the run was needed on his comeback in the Rowland Meyrick in December. He jumped five out still on the bridle before getting tired.

Kalashnikov's course record is good, too. He won the 2018 Betfair Hurdle and was third in this race in 2021. While it is hard to see past how well handicapped he looks from his reduced mark of 150, it would not be a great surprise to see him outrun big odds if he has come on for Wetherby.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Nicholls seeks 11th Denman with Hitman

This is a race that holds a special place in Paul Nicholls' heart.

He has won it ten times with staying stars such as Kauto Star (2007), See More Business (2000), Clan Des Obeaux (2019) and, of course, Denman (2008), after whom the race is now named.

Hitman, his representative this year, seems sure to start a warm favourite as he bids to bounce back from a disappointing run in the King George VI Chase at Kempton.

There were some people who believed Hitman would emerge best of the Ditcheat trio on Boxing Day, but Bravemansgame rose to the challenge, with Frodon third, and Hitman pulled up.

Nicholls believes Hitman has a "great chance" of Newbury glory, and said: "The Denman Chase has been a very good race for us, and I love winning it given its name.

"Hitman was fancied in the King George on soft ground, but made a bad mistake which took him out of the race. You can put a line through that. He's very well and has a great chance."

What they say

Brendan Powell, rider of Eldorado Allen
He doesn't know how to run a bad race, so you'd be hopeful he'll put his best foot forward again. He won the race last year and I think he has a nice chance again.

Kim Bailey, trainer of Does He Know
He's in a good place. He had a very hard race when he won under 12st at Cheltenham in November, and we've intentionally given him a long break. We had the choice of running at Newbury or at Haydock next weekend and he probably deserves to run in a race where he isn't giving lumps of weight away.

Anthony Honeyball, trainer of Sam Brown
I've been very happy with him and he schooled well this week. We're happy to let him to take his chance if the ground is genuinely good. He has cheekpieces on for the first time as a few things came to light after the Many Clouds, which was the first race in a while in which he had not done himself justice. I feel like we've got him where we want him to be again now.

Venetia Williams, trainer of Fanion D'Estruval
He has tended to drop himself out recently so we're putting cheekpieces on. He has a good chance anyway, and an even better one if the cheekpieces produce an enhanced performance.

Amy Murphy, trainer of Kalashnikov
He's in good form. He got a bit tired at Wetherby in the Rowland Meyrick on his first run in nearly two years. It's a tough race, but we know he likes Newbury and, fingers crossed, he'll run a good race.

Philip Hobbs, trainer of Zanza
He's taking on higher-rated horses. He seems well at home, and has very good form at Newbury – he's won four of his five starts there.
Reporting by Richard Birch

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