'He goes there with a good chance' - key quotes and analysis for a valuable middle-distance handicap

Lightly raced short-priced favourites have been a regular theme in the handicaps at York this week and Nobel is another in this valuable prize.

Nobel probably merits a short price on the promise of his comfortable novice successes at Kempton and Epsom and could blow this race apart off a mark of 90 on his handicap debut.

The wheels came off Nobel in the Listed James Seymour Stakes at Newmarket on his third start in October, but he was strong in the market that day (9-1 from 11-1 on the show) in a deep race concerning four horses rated 109 or higher.

The excuses for finishing last of eight are easy to pinpoint. The son of Lope De Vega was by daylight the least experienced runner in the field and raced too keenly for his own good on his first crack at a slow surface. That found him out, as did his breathing. He returns following wind surgery and wears a first-time tongue-tie.

The other unexposed type with the potential to rate much higher is Aramaic for William Haggas. His wellness is taken on trust following 608 days off, although it must be a plus he is retained by top connections.

Aramaic recorded two three-figure Racing Post Ratings in good handicaps at Newbury and York in September 2021 and runs off 92 for a trainer well capable of readying one after a layoff. He could go either way in the market.

Spirit Dancer: excellent record on the Knavesmire

Progressive six-year-old Spirit Dancer loves York, but history suggests he will need his comeback, and Eeetee makes the most appeal among those with a recent outing.

This course-and-distance winner was arguably value to win by further off 4lb lower at Haydock on his return as he was messed about in the straight before asserting his dominance on a similar-quality field.

David O’Meara has enlisted the services of Andrea Atzeni, who steered home two of the last four winners of this handicap and is showing a 20 per cent strike-rate (2-10) when teaming up with the trainer over the past five years. Backing the pair's runners to £1 stakes in that duration would have yielded an £18 profit.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

What they say

Hughie Morrison, trainer of Stay Well
This looks a nice starting point to his season and he should like the ground as we took him out at Goodwood when it went heavy.

William Knight, trainer of Moktasaab
The soft ground was against him on his reappearance at Newmarket but he ran a credible race in the circumstances to finish fourth. He’s come out of that well, the track and ground should suit him and I think he goes there with a good chance.

James Ferguson, trainer of Diderot
He is rated 7lb lower on turf than he is on the all-weather as he didn’t run very well at Chester last year. He’s been working well on the grass gallops lately and if you’re ever going to give the turf another go, York is the place to do it.

James Ferguson: trainer of DiderotCredit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

Philip Robinson, racing manager to Jaber Abdullah, owner of Marhaba The Champ
Kevin Ryan and the owner are very excited to see how he gets on after having a wind operation over winter and this looks the right starting point to his season. It looks a competitive heat but we have the champion jockey on board so there are plenty of positives.

Oisin Murphy, rider of Nobel
He won well at Epsom last year and is ready to start off but it’s a step into the unknown in a competitive handicap. He’s had a wind operation since last year and goes there with an each-way chance.

Tim Palin, racing manager to Middleham Park Racing, owners of Lightening Company
This is his right trip and he goes well at York, although he wouldn’t want the ground too quick so we could do with another watering session.
Reporting by David Milnes

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