'He could be open to a lot of improvement' - key trainer quotes and analysis for the Commonwealth Cup

There has been a perverse supply and demand dynamic in the Commonwealth Cup's short history. For evidence of the demand, look at fashions in the European breeding industry. You would think the first top-class, fast stallion is as important a discovery as cold fusion.

However, supply is still lacking. Australia can send their B team and pick up Britain's best five-furlong sprints. No winner of the Commonwealth Cup currently commands a stallion fee of more than £15,000, and come next year the race might not even be a Group 1.

By the rules of the European Pattern Committee, a Group 1 race should have an average race rating (calculated from the end-of-year ratings of the first four home) of 115 over a three-year period. If you go below 113, you get put on watch for relegation. The Commonwealth Cup, after a promising start, hit 112.17 last year.

The race might be saved by default, as after this year a particularly poor running in 2021 falls out of the three-year-average. The lesson will remain the same. Yes, the Commonwealth Cup is a good source of open Group 1 sprinters. However, relative to Group 1s over longer distances in this part of the world, the bar to entry is low.

You might suggest this is part of why Inisherin finds himself here. He was found out, but far from disgraced, in the 2,000 Guineas and found sprinting to be comfortable in the Sandy Lane. With only a moderate amount of improvement from Newmarket, 6lb according to Racing Post Ratings, he is at the top of his new division. It is the prospect of more to come that puts Inisherin clear at the head of the betting.

With Elite Status a non-runner, the race is lacking in depth. The only other horse at single-figure odds was Jasour. He beat Adaay In Devon, who won a Listed race on Saturday, in the Commonwealth Cup Trial Stakes here in early May. Jasour was a classy early two-year-old who failed to kick on last year, and it is little surprise that he has been kept somewhat fresh for this race.

Underlining the worries about the race's depth, easily the next best piece of form on offer is Starlust's emphatic handicap win over five furlongs at York last month. He looks pretty quick and would have to prove that he will last out over six furlongs at Ascot.

Even if the form is not there, that is not to say there is no potential down the field. Lake Forest has been out only once since he won the Gimcrack and Pocklington might be the second best prospect to emerge from the Carnarvon Stakes. A stiffer track and a visor are just the sort of things to tease more improvement out of him.

Those are the horses to consider for extra place markets or the Tote Swinger. The likelihood is that the Commonwealth Cup will be fought out by those higher up the pecking order. The most important outcome might not be what they do today, but what they go on to do for the rest of the season.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

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Yorkshire up for the Cup again

Yorkshire has every chance of maintaining its stranglehold on this Group 1 sprint, thanks to a member of the ruling family of Dubai.

Perfect Power and then Shaquille have taken the prize for Malton in the last two years and the betting today is dominated by a similarly speedy colt from Hambleton, owned by Sheikh Mohammed's cousin Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum.

Kevin Ryan has not gone any closer than Hello Youmzain's third place in 2019 but he has taken most of the top speed tests in the calendar and his Inisherin looks to have very strong claims.

He showed lots of speed when leading the 2,000 Guineas field to the two-furlong pole last month and put up a smart performance when dropped to six furlongs in the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock three weeks later, bounding up by nearly four lengths.

The £70,000 first prize more than funded the £46,000 it cost to supplement him for this £725,750 contest and more improvement can be expected from a three-year-old who has run only four times.

"This was the obvious next step for him," said the trainer's son Adam. "He's only run once at the trip so he could be open to a lot of improvement.

"He goes there in great order and he has a big chance, his form is there for all to see. He's up against some talented horses but he'll be suited by better ground and a strongly run race."

What they say

Oisin Murphy, rider of Evade
He was really tough at Epsom. Archie Watson and his team including Michael Murphy have done a great job training this horse and making him manageable day-to-day. I'm delighted with the draw in 15 of 15 and hopefully we'll be able to get some space and he can relax.

Clive Cox, trainer of Jasour
I'm very much looking forward to it. He had a pleasing experience on the track in the Pavilion Stakes and I'm thrilled he's back here. He'll appreciate the drier ground.

William Haggas, trainer of Lake Forest
He's fine and ready to go. He loves fast ground and has been pretty effective away from Newmarket.

Ollie Sangster, trainer of Louis Barthas
He's come forward for his run at Newbury. He might lack the experience of some of these but will hopefully run a nice race.

Aidan O'Brien, trainer of Military
He's run two solid enough races over six this season, but he'll need to step up a bit on those in a race like the Commonwealth Cup.

Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Orne
He ran very well when second on his drop back to six furlongs in the Sandy Lane last time out but this is the premier three-year-old sprint in Europe.

Patrice Cottier, trainer of Classic Flower
We’re going there with big ambitions even though it will be her first time running against elite-level sprinters. We were a bit disappointed with her last run, but it emerged that she was in season. That shows she has a strong character because she still ran well. She is well at home and comes into the race a fresh filly.
Reporting by David Carr

Read the rest of our Royal Ascot previews:

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3.45 Royal Ascot: 'She'll need to have come on a bit for her Guineas run and I think she has' - trainer quotes for a red-hot Coronation Stakes

4.25 Royal Ascot: Willie Mullins unveils latest Diamond in bid for more Royal Ascot glory in Duke of Edinburgh

5.05 Royal Ascot: Can Indelible be another winning favourite in the Sandringham? Key analysis and quotes for the fillies' handicap

5.40 Royal Ascot: 'We know he's better than that' - Aidan O'Brien hoping Diego Velazquez can bounce back to form in King Edward VII Stakes

6.15 Royal Ascot: 'He's favourite for a reason' - in-form Oisin Murphy eyeing more success in competitive handicap