'He could be a dark horse' - analysis and key quotes for the Mill Reef

Saturday: 2.50 Newbury
Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) | 6f | 2yo | ITV4/RTV

The Mill Reef is a Group 2 yet has proved a Group 1-esque breeding ground for future sires. Seven of the nine winners from 2012 to 2020 are now stallions and five of those never scored at the highest level.

The runner with the greatest long-term stallion potential in the field at this admittedly early juncture is arguably Sakheer for the bang-in-form Roger Varian.

The €550,000 purchase lacks Group form but ran away with a strong Haydock novice by six lengths last time and is quoted at single-figure odds for the Group 1 Middle Park in a week's time. Varian landed that Haydock race with the smart San Donato a few years ago and this exciting colt could also be destined to take high rank.

Richard Hannon's decision to supplement Shouldvebeenaring is respected and his colt sets the standard on Racing Post Ratings. However, in all likelihood this test is of significantly higher standard than the Listed event he won at Ripon and lucrative sales race he took at York.

That the held-up Shouldvebeenaring managed to score on the Knavesmire in a race where it paid to be prominent gives the impression there is untapped potential, but it is reasonable to suggest his future may lie over further despite his sprinting pedigree.

Harry Angel took this prize in 2016 and is the sire of Hannon's second-string Wallop, who might be the value in the race. He is a maiden but has stronger claims than his early odds indicate.

Wallop pulled seven lengths clear of the fourth when narrowly beaten by Noble Style and Mill Stream in a Newmarket novice over six furlongs in July and takes a considerable step up in class.

That form received a couple of boosts at York when Noble Style landed the Group 2 Gimcrack and Mill Stream shaped better than the result suggests when a non-staying fourth to Chaldean in the Acomb. It is interesting Hannon has rolled the big dice rather than opting for a softer assignment for Wallop's second start.

Once-raced winner Heroism is another to note for Clive Cox, who usually unearths one or two top-class juveniles each year and has landed two of the last six runnings. Heroism's defeat of Hello Deira at Salisbury last month was franked this week.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

Hannon hoping for happy 50th

It's the 50th anniversary of the Mill Reef and victory for Shouldvebeenaring or Wallop would be fitting.

That is because they are trained by Richard Hannon, whose father Richard snr landed the first running in 1972 with Mon Fils, who months later became a 2,000 Guineas hero.

More recent notable winners include star miler Ribchester and Harry Angel, who became world champion sprinter in 2017.

Shouldvebeenaring (left) has claims on his Ripon and York winsCredit: Edward Whitaker

Ripon Listed winner Shouldvebeenaring, who was supplemented on Monday, appears the best hope for Hannon's yard.

The trainer said: "I was very impressed with him at Ripon and also when he won the sales race at York. He hadn't done a lot going into that race but dug deep. He's tough.

"Some people think he might want seven furlongs but he's in good form. You need a horse who has won at his last level to go up to Group class. He won a Listed race and won it well."

Wallop is less heralded, having finished third at Newmarket on his only outing.

"He's a good two-year-old," Hannon added on his Unibet blog. "He's a maiden but he's no slouch. We wouldn't run him in this race if we thought he was average. We worked him yesterday and he worked very well.

"He could be a dark horse. I think he'll appreciate soft ground. He's very green, he doesn't know a lot. I hope he's not too keen. They'll go a good tempo from start to finish and he'll need to be on his A-game massively. He's pretty good."

What they say

Clive Cox, trainer of Heroism
We've always liked him and I was very impressed with his win at Salisbury. We'd missed a lot of grass work, so to see him go and perform as well as he did was great. The form has been franked this week and he deserves a step into this sort of category. Hopefully he'll acquit himself well.

William Muir, joint-trainer of Mustajaab
I was delighted with him when he won at Ffos Las last time and his run at Ascot before that was solid too. Lewis [Edmunds] didn't pick his stick up at Ffos Las and we feel this is worth a go. It was in the back of our minds before Ffos Las because he's a very nice horse, one who'll keep improving.
Reporting by James Burn

Saturday previews:

1.40 Newbury: 'We expect some improvement' - can anyone challenge Godolphin trio in Group 3?

2.15 Newbury: 'This is much easier - she'll go close' - who is confident for wide-open sprint?

2.30 Ayr: Early pace could prove key to breaking Tim Easterby's Silver Cup stranglehold

3.05 Ayr: Clive Cox hopes 'thriving' filly can follow Harry Angel's improvement arc

3.40 Ayr: 'I'm not sure he's streetwise enough' - Haggas on Ayr Gold Cup favourite

3.55 Gowran Park: Analysis and key quotes as Magic Chegaga bids to continue brilliant season

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