Graeme Rodway believes speed could be the key to solving Classic Trial puzzle

It's always hard to assess lightly raced three-year-olds at this early stage of the season, and punters will be faced with the task of separating those who can make it at the top level from those who only promise to. So what's the best way of doing just that?

While I'm not one who places maximum emphasis on speed ratings, I do find them of particular interest when it comes to assessing lightly raced three-year-olds who haven't had the chance to show what they are fully capable of. It's rare for a slow horse to run a quick time, for example, so a horse who has run a fast time must, at least, have its share of ability.

There are several different speed figures available in Britain nowadays and the majority are reliable, but I rate the Raceform speed figures best and Sir Lucan tops this field on those ratings. He achieved a figure of 113 when fourth behind Derby favourite High Definition in the Beresford Stakes at the Curragh in September and that puts him clear of these runners.

Sir Lucan (blue and orange striped cap) may boost the form of his Beresford Stakes conqueror and ante-post Derby favourite High Definition at Sandown on FridayCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

The problem is that it might tell you more about High Definition than it does Sir Lucan because Aidan O'Brien trains both and the Ballydoyle maestro rarely runs his best three-year-olds in this race. He has saddled seven runners since 1999 and Imperial Monarch was his only winner in 2012. If Sir Lucan wins then High Definition might be a superstar.

Lone Eagle (110) and Recovery Run (108) recorded the next best figures when filling the first two positions in the Zetland Stakes at Newmarket in October and it's also worth noting that Lone Eagle ran to 109 when winning a novice at Goodwood in August. That means Lone Eagle has two of the three highest ratings in the race, but both were achieved on soft ground.

John Gosden has won this twice in the last four runnings and he and son Thady are stepping impressive Pontefract novice winner Trawlerman significantly up in grade. He equalled Recovery Run's figure of 108 at Pontefract, so should be up to this class judged on that.

Likely favourite Yibir and last year’s Solario winner Etonian are next best with ratings of 106 and both have the potential to go higher. That puts them clear of the other four runners, completing a standout six contenders in what looks a hot running of this Group 3.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

Appleby pair out to continue trial domination

At Newmarket last week and again at Epsom on Tuesday, the Godolphin blue has blazed a trail through the early-season Classic trials, with Charlie Appleby annexing the Feilden and the Craven on the Rowley Mile before Wirko put himself in the Cazoo Derby picture with success in the Blue Riband at Epsom.

The Moulton Paddocks team look to add further firepower to their armoury of promising three-year-old colts in a race Godolphin last won in 2011, with William Buick aboard apparent number one Yibir.

Yibir holds off Megallan to win at NewburyCredit: Mark Cranham

A full-brother to the highly decorated Wild Illusion, Yibir was last seen when defeating subsequent Listed winner Megallan at Newbury last September.

Appleby said: "It's a nice draw for him [in stall six]. He's done well through the winter and progressed with each run as a two year old, ultimately winning the Haynes, Hanson & Clark Conditions Stakes at Newbury, form which got a nice boost at the start of the season. His preparation has gone well and we feel he's hopefully one of our nicer middle-distance horses, so we're expecting a nice run from him."

James Doyle takes the ride on Adayar, who seemed to learn plenty from his Nottingham debut last October, scoring by nine lengths when returning to the same venue a fortnight later.

Appleby said: "He's drawn down in stall one which isn't ideal but it all depends on the pace angles really. We're hopeful they're two nice middle-distance horses who can start their three-year-old careers off and we'll see where we're pitching them in the first half of the season after Friday."

What they say

David Menuisier, trainer of Belloccio
The Listed race has worked out and the maiden at Salisbury has as well. He's a horse we've always liked. Last year he was so huge I'm glad he hasn't grown and he just looks finer, more like a racehorse. I'm very pleased with him and he moves really well. He'll definitely come on for the race and it's a first trial. At the back of our minds we want to see if we have a Prix du Jockey Club horse. I anticipate he'll run well and I hope he can win.

Richard Hannon, trainer of Etonian
He's won twice there and hopefully he can do the business again, but it's a step up again. In his work he looks like he wants this trip, which is a good thing.

Martyn Meade, trainer of Lone Eagle
He improved all the time last year and did everything we asked of him. He never shows anything at home but just gives his all on the racecourse. He coped with Sandown well first time out when he was a bit unlucky, so hopefully he can go one better there this time. After the race on Friday it will tell us where we are and whether we need to work him on our Derby gallop at home, but so far he is going the right way. I think he is pretty versatile ground-wise and I don’t think he is ground dependent as far as I can ascertain, both from what we have seen at home or on the racetrack.

Aidan O'Brien, trainer of Sir Lucan
He seems in good form and is just ready to start back for his first run of the season, so hopefully he runs a nice race. We always thought he'd progress from two to three and that he'd stay a mile and a quarter at least, and maybe a bit further.

John Gosden, joint-trainer of Trawlerman
We did have him in the handicap but have opted to run him in the Group race, which looks quite a strong renewal this year. He won over a mile and a half at Pontefract last time so the trip won't be an issue and he should be suited by the stiff finish.
Reporting by Scott Burton

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