'Going back in trip is interesting' - analysis and key quotes for first look at National course in Foxhunters' Chase

The Foxhunters' is the first chance of the week to see the National course, and how testing conditions are. Received wisdom has it we will get a strong indicator. Races for amateur riders are thought more likely than the average to be run at a good pace. That is never truer than on big occasions such as this.

The equivalent race to this one at Cheltenham – run on officially soft ground that was heavy in reality – illustrates the point. The slow-motion finish, especially stark in third-placed Time Leader's case, is similar to what is expected today. Aintree does not have the hill, but the elbow does a passable impression.

The surprising corollary in well-run races on deep ground is that a horse needs the pace to keep up. Cheltenham winner Sine Nomine showed that, even though it was his determination at the finish that sticks in the mind.

Do not get bogged down in looking for mudlarks and forget about looking for horses with the pace or class to lay up. It is not good sluicing through deep ground while you hunt back to the stables from the Melling Road.

The market has identified most of the form picks and soft-ground specialists. A couple could have been missed. This winter, Romeo Magico has been progressive, rare for hunters but common among six-year-olds. His profile is not dissimilar to stablemate Its On The Line, and he clearly acts in the mud. He just has not been tested at this level.

Also look at Espoir De Guye, who reached a smart level as a handicapper at around this trip and has always been adept in testing ground. There have been signs in his hunter runs of getting back to something like his best. On his best run, he beat last year's winner of this race, Famous Clermont, at Wincanton. The ground cannot get too deep, nor the field go too fast, to put Espoir De Guye off his stride.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

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What they say

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Cap Du Mathan
He probably wasn't up to winning handicaps off his mark and has had a few little problems. We've dropped him down in grade and he won well at Leicester last time over two miles. He gets two-and-a-half miles and should give Olive [Nicholls] a great ride. He's a big price each-way.

Oliver Greenall, joint-trainer of Gaboriot
He's in good form. The ground is a bit of an issue, but he's got some form on it before and I'd hope the fences will be no issue too, as he's run over unique obstacles at Auteuil before. He took a while to settle after coming over from France, but something has clicked and he's looked like he's been very progressive this season.

Emmet Mullins, trainer of Its On The Line
He’s a real character. Derek [O’Connor] was really happy with him in the race last year, but he just overjumped Becher’s and it was one of those things. With the way the ground is and the fact that it’s over the National fences, it should slow everything down so hopefully he goes there with a decent chance.

Willie Mullins, trainer of Annamix
Patrick [Mullins] feels he will love going back to Aintree after finishing third in the Topham a few years ago. His experience of the track will be a huge benefit, he’ll handle the ground alright but it’s his liking for these fences that has drawn Patrick to this race. He must have a leading chance.  

Dan Skelton, trainer of Bennys King
He ran a great race when second last year and has a great each-way chance again. He's 13 but doesn't appear to be deteriorating and will love the soft ground. There are plenty of positives.

Regan Pallas, trainer of Spyglass Hill
He won first time out for us at Haydock and might be one of the best horses in the race. He's jumped round Aintree before in the Grand Sefton and has run in some very good races in Ireland.

Tom Lacey, trainer of Tea Clipper
He's in good shape. He would have preferred better ground, although you can say that about a lot of horses in the field. He schooled very nicely over the Aintree fences I made at home and going back in trip is interesting, as I wonder whether this is his trip rather than three miles.

Hannah Roach, trainer of Time Leader
He's got a chance. I just wish it hadn't rained so much, but it's the same for everyone. He finished fifth in the race last year and this is the best chance we've had with him. The ground was against him at Cheltenham but he ran well and was just stopped by the hill at the end – if it had been good ground he probably would have won. He's come back from Cheltenham and is working better than before the race there, so we've got high hopes.
Reporting by Andrew Dietz

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Read our Thursday previews

1.45 Aintree: 'There are no negatives' - Dan Skelton confident of big run from Grey Dawning in Cheltenham rematch with Ginny's Destiny 

2.20 Aintree: Sir Gino 'will have to stand up and be counted' says Nicky Henderson - can he put an end to the yard's poor run? 

2.55 Aintree: Shishkin and Gerri Colombe clash in epic Aintree Bowl - plus Emmet Mullins is seeing 'very good signs' from novice Corbetts Cross 

3.30 Aintree: Irish stars dominate the market but both have questions to answer in intriguing Aintree Hurdle 

4.40 Aintree: 'We've aimed him at this all season' - distance questions offer hope to unheralded sorts in the Red Rum 

Four Grade 1s kickstart Aintree's Grand National meeting in style - and it's the moment of truth for Nicky Henderson 

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