Four heavy ground specialists who will relish testing conditions in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday
A liking for testing conditions will be key in the Betfair Hurdle (3.15) at Newbury on Saturday after persistent rain over the last few days. Here we pinpoint four horses who will relish in the mud . . .
Spirit D'Aunou
Forecast odds: 8-1
Progressive sort who has won five from seven with his two defeats coming on good to soft.
His latest victory was on heavy ground at Sandown where he clocked a career-best RPR of 138 and he won his only other start on heavy in March.
The money has arrived for Gary Moore's five-year-old and it is easy to see why with conditions set to suit him more than most.
Spotlight comment: Scored comfortably at Sandown (2m, heavy) two months ago, taking handicap record to 3-3 and overall record to 5-7; hit with 10lb rise but has a progressive profile and his trainer has won this race three times; strong credentials.
RP Recommends: how to bet on the Betfair Hurdle
By Tom Park, audience editor
With 24 runners and potentially heavy ground, you're going to need every tool at your disposal to help you turn a profit in the Betfair Hurdle, so be wary of the each-way place terms on offer.
Sky Bet and William Hill are offering seven places on the big race, but it is worth checking both firms to see which are the best price out of the pair as neither offer best odds guaranteed (BOG) on the race.
Sky Bet are often a couple of points lower than other firms with lesser places, but it is worth remembering you can always take their place terms at SP if you suspect your selection is on the short side.
William Hill tend to be closer to the market with their prices and offer customers one bet boost a day that could be used to enhance your odds, usually up to a value of £20.
If BOG is a concession you would like on your side, bet365 offer this from 8am on the day of the race and are paying a generous six places on the race. If you're having a bet in the morning (8am-12pm) I would recommend taking the six places with bet365 as, with the heavy conditions and competitive nature of the race, BOG is good to have as the market is subject to big swings.
If you're betting close to the off then the seven places with Sky Bet and William Hill becomes more attractive, but be wary if you're not taking advantage of the each-way terms that their prices are often shorter than other firms and you also don't get BOG.
Lookaway
Forecast odds: 11-1
A real hardy type who, bar three lacklustre runs last season when the stable was seemingly out of form, has finished first or second in every other of his ten starts.
Don't take the form too literally as, while he is only one from five on soft ground, he has produced some big performances in defeat and has proven stamina over further than 2m.
On his last two starts he clocked an RPR of 142 when second in the Greatwood Hurdle and 136 when runner-up to Captain Teague in the 2m4½f Grade 1 Challow Novices' Hurdle on soft ground. A repeat of those performances should see him go close here.
Spotlight comment: Front-runner; dual Grade 2 winner; has form figures of 11122 this term, runner-up in major handicap at Cheltenham (2m) and Grade 1 novice here (2m4f) on soft ground the last twice; may still have further progress in him; solid contender.
Knickerbockerglory
Forecast odds: 20-1
At 33-1, Knickerbockerglory isn't being given much of a chance by punters, but the majority of his form is on soft or heavy ground so he is perhaps one to consider each-way, particularly with seven places on offer.
He was second to Iceo in the Imperial Cup on heavy ground last season and that performance can be marked up as he was one of just two finishers who were up with the lead, with Dan Skelton's eight-year-old making most.
His best RPR came when he clocked 143 for winning a competitive handicap hurdle at Ascot earlier in the season, beating the reopposing Altobelli by four and a quarter lengths, before finishing a distant seventh in the Greatwood Hurdle.
That run can potentially be forgiven as it came just two weeks after Ascot, when Knickerbockerglory is best fresh, and Skelton's were not in the best of form at the time.
He's not run since and could make his odds of 33-1 look a bit silly as his running style and love of soft conditions might mean he has plenty of runners in trouble by half way.
Spotlight comment: Front-runner; acts on heavy ground; absent since midfield effort in the Greatwood which likely came too soon after his reappearance win at Ascot (1m7f, soft) earlier in November; interesting, given his good record when fresh.
Norman Fletcher
Forecast odds: 25-1
Nigel Twiston-Davies has won this three times in the last decade with Splash Of Ginge, Ballyandy and Al Dancer and, while Norman Fletcher is probably a little behind them in terms of class, he should thrive in the testing conditions having won and finished second on his last two starts on heavy ground.
He was slightly disappointing on the latest of those starts, but the pair did pull 12 lengths clear of the third.
Might struggle with the step up in class, but his proven liking for the conditions and big price mean he is perhaps a value each-way play, especially given his trainer's outstanding record in the race.
Spotlight comment: Acts on heavy ground; proving a consistent novice hurdler, having produced form figures of 2112 in completed starts this season; now goes into deeper waters but his trainer has won this contest three times; could go well again.
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