Finding the leader could prove key to solving this sprint puzzle

Saturday: 1.15 Lingfield
BetUK Over 40,000 Live Streamed Races Handicap | 5f | 3yo+ | ITV4/Sky

If you have spent any amount of time betting on the all-weather, you will know that the 5f track at Lingfield lends itself strongly to front-runners. Yet the numbers are so stark that it is worth laying them out again.

In races with eight runners or more since the start of 2018, 26 have gone to the leaders at a strike-rate of 22 per cent. That is more than double what you would have expected if front-runners held no edge.

More to the point, the market has not even been able to keep up with this known angle. Taking each horse's SP and totalling up the expected winners (where, for example, an even-money shot represents 0.5 expected winners) would have predicted just 15.81 winners from the sample.

So finding the winner of this race is less about reading the form than nailing down who will make the running. You might think to work outwards from the inside stall, but the draw stats over 5f at Lingfield are nowhere near as lopsided as those related to early pace. A clear edge exists for sure, but a horse with enough pace to beat those on his inside to the first bend – little more than 100 yards after the start – will gain more of a tactical advantage than he or she will lose in terms of energy spent.

Early prices are relying somewhat on this angle, as overnight favourite Bethersden Boy will break from the widest stall in ten. He has noted gate speed, he does not always lead but he almost always pings the lids.

This will be Bethersden Boy's first run over 5f, so it remains to be seen if he can outpace pure speedballs. William Buick, who has ridden eight winners from 40 rides at Lingfield this year, knows what he has to do and will almost certainly be anticipating the start in the hope that he has the horse to carry him into a crucial early lead.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

'Yimou has a big chance'

Dean Ivory believes Yimou has a great opportunity of ending a 27-run losing spell which stretches back to July 2020.

The seven-year-old sprinter races off a mark of 70, having competed off as high as 88 in the past.

Ivory, while stressing that Yimou is no longer the force of old, still believes he retains sufficient dash to score off his current rating.

"He’s been knocking on the door lately," he said. "He’s not the horse he was – he seems to have aged in a relatively short space of time – but he’s been running very well.

"He’s best over five and a half furlongs and goes to Lingfield in good shape. I’d say he’s got a big chance on Saturday. It’s the first time he’s had a decent draw for a while."

What they say

Conrad Allen, trainer of Mick’s Spirit
He’s come out of his last race at Lingfield quite well. This was the race we had originally been targeting with him – we only put him in that race on Monday when they put the extra meeting on. I'm hopeful he'll trouble the judge. He's won three at Lingfield, and knows his way round there. He's handicapped about right. I wouldn’t say he’s well handicapped, but I think he can win off his current mark.

Adrian Nicholls, trainer of Pepper Streak
She's in good form and looks to be off a competitive mark. I’m confident she'll run well. The first-time hood seemed to do the job when she finished fourth at Wolverhampton last time. She’d been a bit gassy in her previous two starts after a break, but she was much better that day. The horse who finished second in that race, Politics, has won since.
Reporting by Richard Birch

Saturday previews:

2.40 Chelmsford: Can Lord Paramount land the odds against experienced rivals?

3.00 Lingfield: 'She's taken off on the track' - can Queen Of Ipanema make it six on the bounce?

3.15 Chelmsford: 'I'd love him to win one and go out on a high note' - sprint handicap quotes

3.33 Lingfield: Can Gosden rule again in Quebec Stakes with two leading chances?

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