Exciting novice hurdler Dusart bidding to buck the trends for Nicky Henderson

2.20 Aintree
Betway Top Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) | 2m½f | 4yo+ | ITV4/RTV

A lot has been made of Nicky Henderson’s remarkable record at Aintree with runners who won at the festival on their previous start (eight winners from 11 runners since the start of 2011), and the figures still stand up well when the sample is expanded to include all his representatives at Aintree who competed at the Cheltenham showpiece on their latest run.

Henderson has 27 winners from 122 runners who came to Aintree in April within 40 days of competing at Cheltenham since the start of 2011. That’s a 22 per cent strike-rate and a £1 bet on each would have yielded a profit of £9.62.

However, his runner in this race, Dusart, didn’t take up an engagement at the festival, so should that be considered a positive or a negative?

If we switch the figures around to concentrate only on Henderson-trained runners who missed Cheltenham and waited for Aintree, they make pretty grim reading in comparison.

Henderson has had only six winners from 79 runners who came straight to Aintree without competing at the festival in the last ten years. That’s just eight per cent and a £1 bet on each yielded a loss of £20.

Dusart schools at home under Jerry McGrathCredit: Edward Whitaker

Dusart didn’t miss the festival out of choice and reportedly suffered a setback around Christmas, after which Henderson seemed likely to draw stumps and wait for next season.

The fact he has changed his mind could be taken either way. Maybe Dusart is in such rude health at home that he must be allowed to run. On the other hand he was described as a “big, big baby of a horse” by the trainer at Christmas.

That poses a question mark over whether he will be experienced enough to win this Grade 1 on just his second outing, and without the benefit of having a festival run. One thing is for sure, though, he has a big future.

Third Time Lucki did compete at Cheltenham but it wasn’t in one of the Grade 1s. He finished sixth in the County Hurdle and tries to step up from that handicap to the top level.

There have been 88 runners attempt to win Aintree Grade 1s within 40 days of running in a handicap at Cheltenham in the last ten years and only four won (five per cent; -£56 to £1 level stake). All four who tried for his trainer Dan Skelton were beaten too, so it’s a big challenge.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

Bailey bids to roll back the years

If Ajero lands the Betway Top Novices' Hurdle, he will bridge a 39-year gap for trainer Kim Bailey, who sees similarities between his first winner of the race and the one he hopes will become his second.

Bright Oasis, successful at Aintree for the trainer in 1982, was not a big horse and nor is Ajero, but he plainly has an engine, as he has showed in notching a four-timer over hurdles.

Most recently, he laughed at an official rating of 134 when winning a Huntingdon handicap by eight and a half lengths as a 4-7 shot. That makes him well worth his place in this Grade 1 field, although Bailey is extremely frightened of Dusart.

Ajero bids for his biggest win yet in the Top Novices' HurdleCredit: Edward Whitaker

"Ajero has done very little wrong," said Bailey. "He's a quick little horse and fast ground is the big thing for him. This is a significant step up, and I think Nicky Henderson's horse is probably unbeatable, but we'll give it a go.

"Our horse has come a long way in a short space of time. I've purposely taken the route I've gone to get experience into him, and I'm hoping that works.

"He hasn't run left-handed before because he always used to hang right, but that wasn't the case at Huntingdon last time. I'm therefore hoping he is now beyond that stage, plus a wind operation may have helped."

What they say

Neil Mulholland, trainer of Any News
We purposely stayed away from Cheltenham to avoid the Irish horses but I also think Aintree will suit him better. He has done a lot right already and is a nice horse.

Peter Fahey, trainer of Belfast Banter
It looks like it will be run at a fast pace and hopefully he can pick up some prize-money. He has a bit to find on ratings but he came out of Cheltenham well and we’re happy to take our chance.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Dusart
He's a very useful horse. He had a bad injury after he won his only start way back before Christmas, but he was very impressive at Newbury and that form has worked out extremely well. He was really sharp that day and Saturday's two-and-a-half-mile race looked very hot, so we thought we'd stay at two miles for the time being. He will get further, though.

Alex Hales, trainer of For Pleasure
This has really been the plan all season. The owner was keen to go to Cheltenham, and he was justified in doing so, but this track should very much suit him. Everything has gone well since the Supreme and he must have every chance. I suppose a lot depends on Nicky Henderson's horse.

For Pleasure has been a star this season for trainer Alex HalesCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

Fergal O'Brien, trainer of Timberman
He'll love the ground and ran very well at Doncaster on his first hurdles run for us. He made a mistake three out and I thought that was him done, but he stayed on really well.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Third Time Lucki
This track is absolutely perfect for him and we can ride him a bit more patiently compared to Cheltenham. I've always thought he's high class. He has some very good form and I think he'll go very well.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Houx Gris
He's rated 130 now and is a little bit in no-man's land, but he's getting an allowance off the older horses and the trip and ground will suit him, so we thought we'd take our chance.
Reporting by Lee Mottershead

Read more previews for day two at Aintree:

2.50 Aintree: can Cheltenham star Chantry House back up Marsh form over longer trip?

3.25 Aintree: fit and fresh Politologue 'raring to go' after Cheltenham disappointment

4.05 Aintree: King hoping long-term planning can pay off with Senior Citizen in Topham

4.40 Aintree: Bravemansgame bids to add another Grade 1 on first try over three miles

For all our exclusive free bet offers and must-have daily promotions click the free bets button or go to racingpost.com/freebets