El Fabiolo v Jonbon: who comes out on top in an Arkle for the ages?

Trends spotters used to downplay the link between the Supreme Novices' Hurdle and the Arkle because the double was rarely completed before the mid-2010s. In winning the 2016 Arkle, Douvan defied more than 50 years of history. 

Altior and Shishkin have since followed his lead, so everyone is on to the angle now. Or they would be if Constitution Hill were running. No Supreme winner this year means that the Supreme to Arkle journey has not been widely discussed. Yet considering two of the market principals ran in last year's Supreme, and the differences between the two races should work more in their favour this time, that looks to be a major oversight.

Jonbon and Dysart Dynamo's prospects are improved by not having to face Constitution Hill. It is worth noting that horses returning to the Cheltenham Festival who have not previously won at the meeting outperform previous winners, not in absolute terms but in respect of market expectations based on their starting prices.

How these two horses raced in the Supreme is even more significant. The seemingly untameable Dysart Dynamo, egged on by Jonbon, set a strong gallop in last year's Supreme. After Dysart Dynamo fell heavily three out when still upsides, Constitution Hill was able to kick away and break the course record. Jonbon tired but was still able to hold second.

On the evidence of the Dublin Racing Festival, Dysart Dynamo is no easier to control as a chaser. He did too much in the Irish Arkle and El Fabiolo, favourite for this race, was best placed to pick him off. Jonbon has looked just as enthusiastic over fences as he was over hurdles, albeit in small fields.

That the Arkle contains two such horses near the top of the betting is a massively overlooked angle. Although they were unable to beat Constitution Hill last year, conditions suggest they have much more chance of staying away this time.

If you were asked to design a race to suit front-runners, the first two things you should do are put in fences and water the ground. The stats have proved this repeatedly. 

The ground angle clearly applies here. With the rain that has fallen on Cheltenham in the last week, there will be no course records broken today. 

Now compare hurdle and chase runs at Cheltenham since 2010. Front-runners on the hurdles course have a better strike-rate than hold-up horses, although the latter group perform better once market expectations are factored in.

Over fences the results are extremely lop-sided. Leaders have more than double the strike-rate you would expect, and have 50 per cent more winners than market expectations. Hold-up horses perform poorly on both measures.

In short, in chases at Cheltenham the leaders have a much bigger advantage than they do over hurdles. The tactics used on Dysart Dynamo and Jonbon on this card 12 months ago are much more likely to bring them success this time.

The Arkle is the first steeplechase of the Cheltenham Festival and will do nearly as much as the Supreme Novices' Hurdle to set the tone for the week. But recency bias is one of the most dangerous fallacies of Cheltenham betting. 

Trends such as the record of returning horses and the pace bias on the chase course, are permanent even if they do not work out every time. A win for Jonbon or Dysart Dynamo would be a timely reminder of two of the Cheltenham Festival's defining characteristics.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

'His schooling was excellent last week'

Two old adversaries tied together closely on form and the two most successful trainers in the history of the Cheltenham Festival firing off positive messages, means this year’s Arkle has all the makings of a rip-snorting race.

It is understandable why trainers Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins are so upbeat about their prospects of landing the Arkle with Jonbon and El Fabiolo respectively. Between them they have won seven of the last ten runnings, with such superstars as Altior, Douvan, Shishkin, Simonsig and Un De Sceaux. They rarely run a bad one in the race.

Jonbon: "A strong pace should suit," says trainer Nicky HendersonCredit: Alan Crowhurst

As Douvan’s brother and with his high-calibre performances over hurdles, expectations have always been high for Jonbon over fences this season. His reputation as a potential star chaser preceded his debut over fences amid talk of sublime schooling sessions in the autumn. 

Haring off from the front, he backed up those expectations on his first two starts before leaving not everyone entirely satisfied when winning a two-runner race in a manner less convincing than his odds of 1-16 had suggested.

This time, not only does Jonbon have El Fabiolo to take on, but also the tearaway Dysart Dynamo, whose exuberance means he will almost certainly steal Jonbon’s thunder by making the running. 

However, such tactical inconveniences have not unsettled Henderson, who said: “If Dysart Dynamo makes the running, I suspect we won't be too far away. I think it will come down to who jumps best and I'm pretty sure Jonbon will stay two and a half miles when the time comes, so a strong pace should suit.

“Everything has gone well and his schooling was excellent last week, while his work has been good too. He had a nice gallop at Kempton recently after he won the [two-runner] Kingmaker and I sort of have a feeling he quite likes nicer ground, so we'll see how it rides.”

Jonbon, one of the massed ranks carrying the green and gold insignia of owner JP McManus at this week’s festival, came out narrowly on top when he and El Fabiolo, owned by Simon Munir and Isaac Souede, met over hurdles at Aintree last season.

Not all were convinced with El Fabiolo’s fluency on his chasing debut in December, but any doubts were cast into the fire when he romped to victory at the Dublin Racing Festival last month. It was a performance that appeared to have left Mullins fearing no one.

“El Fabiolo was very impressive and he comes here with a great chance on the evidence of his run against Jonbon in a novice hurdle at Aintree last year,” he said.

What they say

Willie Mullins, also trainer of Dysart Dynamo, Ha D’Or and Saint Roi
Dysart Dynamo will set a strong gallop, as he did in last year's Supreme. I think he races much better over fences as he has more respect for them and I doubt Jonbon will take him on as he did last year. We'd give this horse a real chance. There is going to be a lot of pace up front and I think that's why Saint Roi will have his chance on this rain-softened ground. He will be doing his best work at the end, especially if the ones in front get their fractions wrong and go too fast. I'll be happy to see Ha D'Or put in a safe round of jumping.

Cian Collins, trainer of Effernock Fizz
This is a big step up in class. She's in great form and hopefully we can pick up a bit of prize-money. She ran a great race here in October, so the track will be no problem. Back down to two miles should suit.

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Hollow Games
He's had his wind tidied since you saw him at Leopardstown and we're hoping he might sneak into a place. He ran well enough in the Martin Pipe here last year.

Sheila Lewis, trainer of Straw Fan Jack
He has won at the track over the distance before and although I’m not saying we can beat Jonbon or El Fabiolo, as they are exceptionally good horses, we could run into a place. He likes a smaller field as he tries a bit harder. I would definitely be doing cartwheels if he finished in the first four. People love a story like this as it is much more exciting. This is all very exciting for me and it is nicer for the viewer when they see that enthusiasm.
Reporting by Peter Scargill

Cheltenham previews:

1.30 Cheltenham: can Facile Vega redeem his reputation and buck the trends with victory in the Supreme?   

2.50 Cheltenham: 'He’s unbelievably talented and we've got him in a good place now' - key quotes and insight for the Ultima   

3.30 Cheltenham: 'Things can always go wrong but nothing worries him' - Nicky Henderson on Champion Hurdle superstar Constitution Hill   

4.10 Cheltenham: Progressive Marie's Rock has the class to get the better of Champion queens Honeysuckle and Epatante   

4.50 Cheltenham: hot favourite Tekao has 'excellent chance' of breaking Willie Mullins' Boodles drought   

5.30 Cheltenham: 'He's his best ride of the week' - is Gaillard Du Mesnil a class apart in National Hunt Chase?  

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