Edwardstone v Third Time Lucki: trainer views and insight for Kingmaker clash

Saturday: 2.05 Warwick
Virgin Bet Kingmaker Novices' Chase (Grade 2) | 2m | 5yo+ | ITV/RTV

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The Irish rolled out their heavy artillery at Leopardstown's Dublin Racing Festival last week and it was an impressive show of force, but the two horses who fought out the finish to the Irish Arkle, Blue Lord and Riviere D'Etel, won't have had the British quaking in their boots.

With Ferny Hollow out for the season and Galopin Des Champs and Bob Olinger likely to compete over further, it's the British who have the biggest weaponry in the two-mile novice chase division and the home team's two heaviest hitters will do battle in this Grade 2.

Edwardstone is the highest-rated two-mile novice on either side of the Irish Sea, with an RPR of 164, and he has run to that figure on both of his last two starts. On the first occasion, he beat Third Time Lucki by 16 lengths at Sandown, but that rival is back for more.

This should be a fascinating rematch because Third Time Lucki definitely went off too quickly in the Sandown contest. Sectionals published on RacingTV.com show Third Time Lucki finished that race more than six per cent slower than his average race pace.

In contrast, Edwardstone was given a better ride and finished just 1.5 per cent slower than his average race speed. So, while the optics gave the impression Edwardstone was finishing strongly, the times suggest that was just an illusion caused by his rivals slowing behind him.

That fact wasn't lost on Harry and Dan Skelton because they changed tactics on Third Time Lucki at Doncaster last time and rode him with more restraint, letting the tearaway For Pleasure go clear in front, and Third Time Lucki didn't come off the bridle, winning easily.

For Pleasure reopposes here, along with another front-runner in Brave Seasca, and their presence might help Third Time Lucki, who should get a nice tow into the race in behind.

This contest therefore looks set to be run in a completely different manner to the Sandown one and Third Time Lucki is unlikely to be a sitting duck for Edwardstone here. In fact, Third Time Lucki may even stalk Edwardstone this time and try to give him a dose of his own medicine.

It's difficult to predict whether it will work, but there probably won't be 16 lengths between them and let's hope that both emerge without any battle scars and ready to fire next month.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

'I want him spot on for March' – Edwardstone has Arkle in sight

Last week's Dublin Racing Festival threw up a wealth of Cheltenham pointers but the Arkle picture remains puzzling and now it is up to Britain's leading hope Edwardstone to "do the talking" according to trainer Alan King.

He faces a stiff test in this pre-festival run as he crosses swords again with Third Time Lucki, having come out on top when the pair clashed in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown in December.

Edwardstone: three from five over fencesCredit: Edward Whitaker

Edwardstone followed up that success with a similarly stylish win in the Grade 2 Wayward Lad at Kempton and King is raring to see his stable's leading festival hope in action again, although he insists this race ultimately serves as preparation for next month's more alluring target.

"I don't want to say too much, I'd rather let him do the talking," King said.

"This race isn't the be-all and end-all and I want to get him spot on for March. We've left a bit to work on, so we'll see what happens.

"It looks a good race but it's entitled to be. He's been going fine and we've given him a bit of a break since Kempton. This race was always the plan as, hopefully, his warm-up for Cheltenham."

Dan Skelton is relishing a second crack at Edwardstone and believes the ground will be in favour of Third Time Lucki this time.

The softer ground was an excuse for Third Time Lucki when he was 16 lengths behind at Sandown and he has since recorded an easy win in Doncaster's Grade 2 Lightning Novices' Chase.

Dan Skelton: ready for a rematchCredit: Harry Trump (Getty Images)

Skelton said: "We can turn the tables with the ground in our favour. I believe, having seen more of our horse, he's effective when he can use all of his speed, like at Doncaster.

"As much as the ground was a little soft for us at Sandown, it was his third quick run at the start of the season, which was part of our undoing. I was happy with what I saw in the Lightning last time. Warwick will suit and we've worked out how to ride him now."

What they say

Gavin Sheehan, rider of Brave Seasca
I'm really looking forward to it. Touch wood, he's a good enough jumper and probably one of the underrated ones in the race, but I think he could run a massive race. Edwardstone has been impressive and Third Time Lucki looked good last time. For Pleasure will probably make the running, so it could be tactical. It's a good race but I wouldn't swap my lad.
Reporting by James Stevens

Saturday previews:

1.15 Newbury: will weight concession prove too much for leading festival fancy Bravemansgame?

2.25 Newbury: can Clan Des Obeaux shrug off the doubts with Denman Chase victory?

3.00 Newbury: 'Still improving' Hitman bids to get Paul Nicholls back on track in Game Spirit

3.15 Warwick: 'He's working nicely and well capable' – analysis and quotes for tricky handicap

3.35 Newbury: key trainer quotes and analysis for the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury

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