Ed Walker: Caradoc is much better than what we have seen this year

Thames Hospice Handicap | 1m4f, 4yo+ | ITV4/Sky

The exclusion of three-year-olds should make races like this less competitive to a small but noticeable extent. It is probably a sign of the restricted programme this year that you would not know as much from this handicap.

There are a significant number of improvers in the 12-strong line-up. Most obviously noticeable is Omnivega, who has won his last three. All have been on the all-weather, but the runner-up last time (Cepheus) made a successful transition to turf at Goodwood last week.

Others on the way up include Look Closely, who has kept good company all the way through his career; Jeremiah, a course and distance winner on King George day; and Fox Vardy, whose tendency to go to his left raises some concerns at this track, but he won his penultimate start by 14 lengths and shaped as well as any at York last time.

The one that punters on Friday seemed to want to be with was Caradoc. It would not be the first time this five-year-old has lured his supporters to the rocks. Since winning at Newbury in September, he has gone off favourite for a Listed race, then second-favourite and joint-favourite for two big handicaps.

That he has not delivered is no real fault of his own. Listed company is probably a bit steep for him, he was set plenty to do at Epsom and pulled too hard in the John Smith's Cup. The last point is worth bearing in mind now that he steps up in trip.

What else might work against a free-goer is the lack of a contested pace. Hasanabad has a history of leading, but even he was held up last time.

Look Closely often races close up, but misses the break even more often, while Fox Vardy is no more than a prominent racer. It is interesting that the last-named is in stall 1. Fallon might fancy using his initiative.

Keith Melrose, betting editor

What they say

James Fanshawe, trainer of Spanish Archer
He ran really well to win at Ripon last time. It's only a fortnight since that win but he seems very well and there are a lack of options and this race is attractive with three-year-olds not allowed to run. He is drawn a bit wide though.

Ed Walker, trainer of Caradoc
He is much better than what we have seen this year. He's a smart horse and it's been frustrating. It didn't pan out for him at York last time as they got racing a long way out and he was on the far side. He has come on again for that race and I don't think 1m4f will be a problem.

Charlie Fellowes, trainer of Jeremiah
He won over course and distance last time and is very talented and only ever does just enough. He's got a good chance and a lovely draw.

Jack Channon, assistant trainer of Koeman
He has come out of his first run back in great nick and the track suits as does the trip.

Roger Varian, trainer of Look Closely
He was a good winner over the course and distance last month and so trip, track and ground are all fine for him. Trainers are never happy when one gets put up 8lb, but it is what it is and he should run well.

Alastair Donald, representing King Power Racing, the owner of Fox Vardy
He won very well at Newmarket and at York he looked as if he might win comfortably, then just tired under a very big weight. It looks a hot race but he should handle the quick ground and I think he's still improving.

David Simcock, trainer of Omnivega
He is a progressive horse and his form is working out well. This is totally different to what he has faced in his last three races round Kempton and Lingfield. It's much harder but there is no problem with him on turf.

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