Early pace could prove key to breaking Tim Easterby's Silver Cup stranglehold

Virgin Bet Ayr Silver Cup Handicap | 6f | 3yo+ | ITV4/RTV

Draw biases are often hailed as the be-all and end-all when it comes to big-field sprints but more often than not the location of the pace determines the winner.

With no rain forecast and firmer ground expected, a track bias is less likely to influence the result and working out where the early pace will be is far more crucial.

In this year's Silver Cup, the near-side looks to be a candidate for just that. From stalls 16 to 25, there are seven horses who like to either front-run or race handily, with the Iain Jardine-trained Jump The Gun in the widest stall being the only habitual hold-up performer in that group.

It has been 19 runs since the five-year-old last went sprinting and the likely pace scenario works out in his favour, as he will need every inch of the trip chasing a frantic pace to have any chance.

Jardine also runs the fascinating Abolish, who spent most of 2021 in Scandinavia and was just over a length behind Ayr Gold Cup favourite Khanjar at Haydock this month off this mark.

Most of the well-fancied horses are drawn on the other side, including Snash for trainer Tim Easterby, who has won two of the last three runnings of this contest.

Snash defeated a reopposing Aberama Gold in the Gold Cup Trial here in July and although he did not make the cut for the feature race, he has excellent claims off his current mark based on an unlucky sixth in the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon.

Easterby has two further chances in the form of eight-year-old Hyperfocus, who is customarily ridden from the front, and Ava Go Joe, who sports a tongue-tie for the first time.

Three horses will carry penalties after last-time out victories, including prominent fancies Lovely Breeze and Vintage Clarets, but just one of the past ten runnings went to a last-time-out winner.

It is also worth noting the poor record of three-year-olds in this race. Just four horses of that age have won the race since the turn of the century, the most recent being Snazzy Jazzy in 2019, which is bad news for Vintage Clarets, Edward Cornelius and Roman Dragon.

A final mention goes to the in-form Roger Varian, whose 21 per cent strike-rate in the last two weeks is backed up by a 26 per cent strike-rate at Ayr – he runs the inconsistent Dusky Lord.
Race analysis by Owen Goulding

Iain Jardine seeks silver

The Ayr Silver Cup is one of the fiercest sprint handicaps of the Flat turf season but trainer Iain Jardine certainly wouldn't swap his two runners.

Abolish finished an eyecatching second to Khanjar, hot favourite for the Ayr Gold Cup, at Haydock last time out, while Jump The Gun bolted up over seven furlongs at the Scottish track last month.

Jardine said: "We've got two good chances in a big, wide-open race. Abolish ran really well at Haydock last time.

"He came from Sweden with a recommendation from William Buick's dad. He's been a bit high in the weights, but could be on a fair mark now."

Jump The Gun: winner at Ayr in August under Paul MulrennanCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Although Abolish's second to Khanjar would seemingly make him Jardine's first string, the trainer is also keen on five-year-old Jump The Gun.

"He's improved this year for the drop in trip," Jardine said. "We went down to Ascot with him last time and you can put a complete line through his run.

"They went steady over seven furlongs and he pulled like a train. I was down there that day and it was noticeable that the jockey couldn't pull him up after the line. A strongly run six furlongs will suit him too."

What they say

Adam Ryan, assistant to Kevin Ryan, trainer of Rathbone
He's a law unto himself. If he's in the mood he would have a big chance. He can be a bit hit and miss but talent-wise he's a very capable horse.

Scott Dixon, trainer of Zargun
We could have done with the ground not drying out for him. He ran fairly well over six and a half furlongs at Doncaster last time and just faded at the end, so the return to six furlongs will suit him.

Ben Haslam, trainer of Fortamour
Some of his form is definitely good enough to win a race of this nature. A bit of luck is required but he's capable. He's run well in defeat lately at York and Ripon and has dropped in the weights each time.

Antony Brittain, trainer of Asadjumeirah
It's a 25-runner cavalry charge and he's one of a number who you could give a good chance to. We felt that we might have a go at the Bronze Cup mid-season after he won a few races, but he scraped into this race. He ran well at Haydock after being gelded and loves a bit of cut in the ground. I think there is still a bit of soft ground at the moment, but I wouldn't want it to dry out any more. I'm not sure whether his draw is good or bad.

Michael Dods, trainer of Woven
Easier ground would have helped. I hoped he’d get into the Bronze Cup rather than the Silver – that would be more his race. He’s a bit of an in between six- and seven-furlongs horse. I would have preferred it softer for him, but he is really well at the moment.
Reporting by Richard Birch

Saturday previews:

1.40 Newbury: 'We expect some improvement' - can anyone challenge Godolphin trio in Group 3?

2.15 Newbury: 'This is much easier - she'll go close' - who is confident for wide-open sprint?

2.50 Newbury: 'He could be a dark horse' - analysis and key quotes for the Mill Reef

3.05 Ayr: Clive Cox hopes 'thriving' filly can follow Harry Angel's improvement arc

3.40 Ayr: 'I'm not sure he's streetwise enough' - Haggas on Ayr Gold Cup favourite

3.55 Gowran Park: Analysis and key quotes as Magic Chegaga bids to continue brilliant season

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