The Dash: how the draw could be all important in the world's fastest race

Saturday: 3.45 Epsom
Simpex Express 'Dash' Handicap | 5f | 3yo+ | ITV/RTV

Epsom's five-furlong course is known as the fastest in the world and that reputation precedes the Dash more than any other race. It is likely that the received wisdom over the course contributes to the Dash's maddening unpredictability.

Overall statistics tell you that a high draw, nearest the stands' rail which the Dash field tends to favour, is the best place to be. Yet in the last ten years there have been two winners from stall one and another two from stall two.

Just because Epsom is fast does not mean the pace cannot collapse. We saw that here in April when last year's Dash winner Mokaatil picked up the pieces after the front-runners had gone much too hard.

To be drawn low is to race away from the ferocious gallop. When that gallop is too strong, those who were forced to tuck in from wide stalls have made a wise move.

It is notable how much pace is among the high numbers this year. King Of Stars (20 of 20) is a habitual front-runner as is Live In The Dream (17) and Mid Winster (13), while Tone The Barone (19) and Thegreatestshowman (15) have some recent history in making the running.

The signs are there that there could be another pace burn-up this year. That would suit Mokaatil, obviously, and he is not drawn too far away from the action in stall nine. Stone Of Destiny is well treated and suited to the fierce pace of big handicaps. He was third in this last year off a 10lb higher mark, although from stall 18 he may have to take evasive action should the leaders start coming back to him.

While predicting a pace collapse would be unwise in all but the most extreme cases, it seems reasonable to say that such an outcome is in play in this year's Dash. If you fancy one in a low-numbered stall, do not be scared to speculate. And if you happen to get it wrong, at least it will all be over quickly.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Dusky draw quandary

The notion that you need a high draw to win the prelude to the Derby is a bit of a myth as three of the last six winners have come from stalls one or two, something that David Egan hopes holds true when he comes from stall three on Dusky Lord.

The four-year-old made a winning return to action at Newmarket last month when he was thought to be in need of the run so could be up to defying a 7lb rise in the handicap.

Egan said of the Roger Varian-trained sprinter: "Dusky Lord had a lovely comeback when I rode him at Newmarket when we were going there thinking that he would come on for the run, so there definitely will be improvement to come.

"The draw probably favours those drawn high, but those drawn lower normally get a cleaner passage. If we have a good run through he would have a live chance. If you run to your mark and get a clean run through in these big sprint races it can be worth half a stone compared to not getting a run."

What they say

Ed Walker, trainer of Mountain Peak
He's a character in the morning and when he's right he's very good. He is still 2lb higher than his highest winning mark so life is tough at the moment for him. He ran badly on his only trip to Epsom, but that was a time when he was not in great form and it was over six furlongs rather than five.

Alastair Donald, spokesman for King Power Racing, owners of Sunday Sovereign and Stone Of Destiny
Sunday Sovereign ran a great race to be second at York last time, but his chances would be enhanced if they get the rain they say may come. On the other hand, Stone Of Destiny would like it on the quick side and we know he likes the race as he was unlucky not to win it last year. He is coming off a slightly disappointing run but has a good draw and has every chance.

Scott Dixon, trainer of Fine Wine
We've been placed in the Dash a couple of times and hopefully can go one better. He's very quick and likes to get on with it, and it's just a question of if he'll handle the track going so fast downhill.

Stuart Williams, trainer of Tone The Barone
We've won the race twice before, but it would be a nice surprise if he could win it as he's 6lb higher than his last winning mark on turf, but he's well drawn. He's an all-weather horse really, but there's nothing for him on the artificials at the moment so this will keep him ticking over.

Charlie Hills, trainer of Equality
He's not drawn the best, but I've been pleased with the work he's produced lately.

Adam West, trainer of Live In The Dream and Live In The Moment
We wondered if Live In The Dream was ready for a race like this, but those doubts were eliminated when he was drawn 17. He's drawn close to King Of Stars who likes to go forward and Sean Kirrane knows him well. Live In The Moment should also get a tow off Fine Wine from his draw and needed the run when he last ran at Goodwood. The only downside would be if we get any rain as both of them don't want it soft.

Paul Midgley, trainer of Mid Winster
She won very well at Catterick last week when she handled the undulations well so hopefully she should have no issues with the track. She's not badly drawn in stall 13 and if they go haring off she'll be doing all her best work late on.

Adrian Nicholls, trainer of Tees Spirit
He's in great order and, granted a bit of luck that you need in these handicaps, I'm confident he'll run a big race. I wouldn't swap him, put it that way.

Silvestre de Sousa, rider of Thegreatestshowman
He has a high draw which is a help and he'll enjoy the ground, but it's just a question of if he's good enough at this level. On the plus side he has a very low weight.

Derby day previews:

2022 Cazoo Derby pinstickers' guide: quotes and ratings for every horse

2.00 Epsom: Can Newbury eyecatcher overcome poor draw to land tough handicap?

2.35 Epsom: 'She's really good' - Mrs Fitzherbert out to confirm class in Group 3 company

3.10 Epsom: Does Modern News deserve his short price? Robbie Wilders doesn't think so

4.30 Epsom: 'He's done nothing wrong' - is Desert Crown destined for Derby greatness?

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