Does Modern News deserve his short price? Robbie Wilders doesn't think so

Saturday: 3.10 Epsom
Cazoo Diomed Stakes (Group 3) | 1m½f | 3yo+ | ITV/RTV

Short-priced favourites falter everyday in racing and punters attempting to buy money by backing Diomed Stakes market leader Modern News at skinny odds should ask themselves two questions.

Does Modern News deserve his even-money price? And more pertinent, should he even be favourite? He isn't connections' recent Classic-winning miler Modern Games, after all.

The Listed race at Windsor in which Modern News slammed exposed rivals Tempus and Bell Rock was tame for the level and the Diomed is significantly deeper. The likelihood of rain hitting Epsom's Saturday card also raises doubts as Modern News prefers good ground.

While the former high-class handicapper has clearly improved this season, Mutasaabeq and Megallan were, by anybody's reckoning, better three-year-olds and the former should arguably head the market.

The Charlie Hills-trained four-year-old was the moral winner of the bet365 Mile at Sandown last time and can be marked up for his neck defeat to Sir Michael Stoute's improving filly Lights On.

He ran on powerfully once in the clear after meeting a wall of horses at a crucial stage and the best is surely still to come.

Mutasaabeq drops from a six-runner Group 2 to a six-runner Group 3. That he can be backed at a bigger price for this weaker assignment is bewildering, particularly as soft ground presents no issues.

Megallan is rated 1lb higher than Modern News and can also be considered value in relation to the favourite at the early prices. An odds-on shot for the 1m2½f Huxley Stakes in May, Megallan disappointed in third there, but the fourth easily landed a Listed race next time and dropping to this 1m½f distance can prompt a resurgence.

A replication of his second to Master Of The Seas in April's Earl of Sefton at Newmarket makes him a major player.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

Modern News looks on the up

Modern News may not have made the headlines many were anticipating in the Lincoln, but the four-year-old’s subsequent exploits mean he takes star billing in a fascinating Diomed Stakes.

The son of Shamardal could manage only seventh of 22 behind Johan on Town Moor, but has since landed the Newbury Spring Cup and a Windsor Listed event in the style of a fast-improving performer.

While plenty of pundits will rightly question the true worth of what he achieved at the Thameside track, it was the manner in which he rapidly put four and a quarter lengths between himself and Tempus which stamped him as emphatically one to keep on the right side.

Such was the visual interpretation of his performance it seems certain Modern News will be a short-priced favourite to add to his tally on his first attempt at Group level, despite his being only third-best on official ratings.

Stablemate Zakouski and the Frankie Dettori-ridden Megallan are both officially rated 1lb superior to Modern News, but his trainer Charlie Appleby is embracing the challenge.

“We last saw Modern News winning a Windsor Listed race in impressive fashion,” Appleby said. “This represents a step up to Group 3 level, and it’s also a step up in trip. I think the extra furlong will suit him and he deserves this crack at a Group 3.”

Zakouski could conceivably start at double-figure odds, but few would be surprised if the six-year-old made a bold show.

Last seen when running well below 5-2 market expectations in the Group 1 Jebel Hatta at Meydan in March – a race in which one of his Epsom rivals, Finest Sound, finished second at 14-1 – this six-time scorer is expected to relish underfoot conditions on the Surrey Downs.

“He’s a very solid horse,” Appleby said. “He’ll love the bit of cut in the ground, which we’re expecting at Epsom, and he should run well too.”

The vast majority of Zakouski’s races have been run on fast terrain, so it’s by no means inconceivable he could massively outrun his odds if any showers hit the Surrey Downs.
Reporting by Richard Birch

What they say

Ed Crisford, joint-trainer of Finest Sound
It’s his first run since he finished second in a Group 1 in Dubai to Alfareeq. It’s a tight Group race, but he goes there in great shape. I’m sure he’ll handle the track at Epsom.

Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Megallan
It's a very competitive renewal but hopefully the track will suit him better than Chester last time. They went off very fast there and he couldn't get into a rhythm. He came out of that in good shape and this looks the right race.

Charlie Hills, trainer of Mutasaabeq
I really couldn’t be happier with him. He’s in great form and was unlucky not to win at Sandown last time. The trip is ideal for him. He’s got a great chance.

Derby day previews:

2022 Cazoo Derby pinstickers' guide: quotes and ratings for every horse

2.00 Epsom: Can Newbury eyecatcher overcome poor draw to land tough handicap?

2.35 Epsom: 'She's really good' - Mrs Fitzherbert out to confirm class in Group 3 company

3.45 Epsom: The Dash: how the draw could be all important in the world's fastest race

4.30 Epsom: 'He's done nothing wrong' - is Desert Crown destined for Derby greatness?

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