Does it pay to stick with the stayers or is speed the key to the Close Brothers?

3.35 Kempton
Close Brothers Handicap Chase (Grade 3) | 3m | 5yo+ | RTV/ITV4

Kempton is a sharp, flat, right-handed speed track and the old adage goes that if you’re going to stay three miles anywhere it will be at Kempton. The implication is the track suits horses who only just get three miles because it doesn’t place an emphasis on stamina.

There must be several connections who have bought into that theory this year because no fewer than ten of the 18 runners are stepping up in trip after competing over shorter last time.

So will it pay to stick with the stayers or is the old adage right and it’s just a test of speed?

Analysing this race alone over the last ten years would suggest speed prevails because five of the last ten winners came into it without a chase victory over 2m7f-plus.

Bally Legend (2014), Pilgrims Bay (2017) and Master Dee (2018) all scored their only three-mile victory over fences in this race, while the 2013 winner Opening Batsman and 2016 scorer Theatre Guide won only twice subsequently between them beyond three miles.

Furthermore, four of those five winners came into the race taking a big step up in trip after competing over shorter last time and doubtful stayers have outperformed the proven stayers.

The four winners came from a sample of just 41 runners whose last race had been over 2m5f or shorter. That gives the group an impact value (IV) of 1.3, meaning they are 30 per cent more likely to win than any given runner. They have also outperformed market expectations for an actual/expected (A/E) winners figure of 1.63 and a £1 level-stake profit of £36 at SP.

Compare that to those who had their prep runs over further than 2m5f and, while you would have found more winners (six), they came from a significantly bigger sample of 92 runners.

That group’s I/V is just 0.87, meaning they are 13 per cent less likely to win than any given runner, and they have also underperformed in relation to the market, recording an A/E figure of 0.78. A £1 bet on all of those 92 runners would have yielded a loss of £36.50 at SP.

This is obviously taken from a small sample based on all 133 runners in the race in the last ten years, but the evidence suggests that: not only is proven stamina not essential, it’s an asset that has been overplayed in the market, and the value has been with the uncertain stayers.

Eight of the 18 runners have yet to win at the trip, including the first three in the overnight market Cap Du Nord, Al Dancer and Clondaw Castle. However, Cap Du Nord had his prep run over three miles at Doncaster last time and we have learned the value usually lies with those going up in trip. Maybe Al Dancer and Clondaw Castle are the ones to concentrate on.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

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Double Shuffle: has a good record in the raceCredit: Mark Cranham

Two chances for George in race he loves

Tom George, twice successful in the Close Brothers Handicap Chase with swashbuckling grey Nacarat, saddles Double Shuffle and Clondaw Castle in a bid to win it again.

Nacarat, victorious in 2009 and 2012, also finished second and third in the Grade 3 from five attempts.

This will be Double Shuffle’s fourth crack at the Kempton feature, and George is hoping he can go one better than when finishing second in 2017 and 2019.

“Last winter was a nightmare for Double Shuffle as he was sky-high in the handicap and we had to run him at the wrong tracks and on the wrong ground,” George said. “We simply had no option.

“His last two runs have proved that he’s still got the old sparkle, and the ground has come right for him.”

Clondaw Castle, two years Double Shuffle’s junior at the age of nine and runner-up to Master Tommytucker over 2m4½f at the track last time, will also appreciate the forecast drying conditions.

“He’s been crying out for three miles and this looks the right time to step him up.” George added. “He simply hates soft ground.”

What they say

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Black Corton and Southfield Stone
Black Corton has enjoyed a nice freshen-up over the winter to wait for this better ground. He ran well in the race last year, and should do so again. Southfield Stone will also love the ground. He’s in good shape, and I’ve always felt he’d get three miles.

Alan King, trainer of Talkischeap
He needs a run over fences to qualify for the Grand National. He ran a very encouraging third in a jumpers’ bumper at Lingfield, staying on well behind a winner who has won again since, and he's schooled well in readiness for his first chase since this race last year. Talkischeap has not had much racing since he ran away with the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown as he's had wind issues that required surgery and his need for good ground has restricted opportunities. But I still think he's got plenty of ability. He works very well and the engine is there – he just needs some match practice.

Christian Williams, trainer of Cap Du Nord
It's a tough race, but the horse is well and I'm looking forward to getting him back on to some nice ground. He just got outstayed by two experienced stayers at Doncaster last time. I think he could still be fairly handicapped on this better ground.

Olly Murphy, trainer of The Butcher Said
He’s in good nick. He ran better than the bare form suggests last time out at Doncaster and has had a wind op since. The better ground will suit, and he could run a big race at a big price.

Neil Mulholland, trainer of Soupy Soups and Fingerontheswitch
Soupy Soups won the Perth Gold Cup around a flat, right-handed track, and Fingerontheswitch boasts good course and distance form. It’s a race we’ve won before with Pilgrims Bay and Walt, and we’re happy to have two runners in it this year.

Chris Gordon, trainer of Mellow Ben
He’s in good order and goes to Kempton on the back of two solid runs. This has been the plan for a while, and he’ll love the ground.
Reporting by Richard Birch

If you want more insight on Saturday's racing . . .

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The Saturday Jury: 'I think he's got a brilliant chance' – our panellists preview the weekend (Members' Club)

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