Does a prep run mean success in early-season sprints? Graeme Rodway investigates

3.00 Musselburgh
Betway Scottish Sprint Cup Handicap | 5f | 4yo+ | ITV4/RTV

A lot is made of fitness and race sharpness at this early stage of the season and I thought that might prove the key to finding the winner of the Cammidge Trophy at Doncaster a week ago.

However, while working on the Racing Post Live show my colleague Dave Orton was quick to shoot down my argument. He argued that seven of the last nine winners had been making their seasonal debut and he was proved right when Royal Commando ran out an easy winner on his seasonal return, while my selection, the race-fit Summerghand, finished fourth.

That got me thinking. Just how important is a prep run in big early-season sprints?

Only four of the 13 runners in this 5f contest come into the race with a recent run under their belt, but two of them are right at the head of the market – Justanotherbottle and Zarzyni.

A quick analysis of the recent statistics suggests that not only is a prep run not a prerequisite for success, but it might also be overplayed in the betting.

In races short of six furlongs at Musselburgh in the months of March and April since the start of 2015, there has been an even split of 67 horses taking part following a prep run within 50 days and 67 runners who hadn’t run in more than 100 days, and the results are revealing.

The runners who have come in fresh without a run in more than 100 days have registered nine wins for an impact value (I/V) of 1.17 and they are outperforming market expectations for an actual/expected winners figure of 1.23. A £1 bet on each yielded a minor loss of 17p at starting price, but you would have made a tidy profit had you backed them all in the morning.

In contrast, runners who had a prep run within 50 days have recorded just seven wins for an I/V of 0.85 and an A/E figure of 0.76. A £1 bet on each would have yielded a loss of £37.13.

There has been a long-standing bias on the five-furlong course at Musselburgh towards those drawn near the stands' side rail (high numbers) and stalls ten, 11 and 12 have done particularly well in races with fewer than 14 runners at the track in recent seasons.

Justanotherbottle (11) and Zarzyni (12) have got lucky in that regard but recent history suggests that, after having a prep run, they won’t be profitable to follow blind, so maybe Jabbarockie (10) could prove the shrewder play on his first outing since last September.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

Prize-money dip for Musselburgh features

Musselburgh has been forced to cut its cloth on Saturday with prize-money taken off the feature Betway Queen's Cup and Betway Scottish Stewards' Cup due to the impact of Covid-19.

The Queen's Cup is run for £25,000 less this year with £20,000 off the Stewards' Cup, although course chief executive Bill Farnsworth has the ambition of returning the funds to 2019 levels next year.

The Stewards' Cup itself used to be worth £100,000 when run in June, but after losing the fixture and needing to find it a new home that worked, Farnsworth admitted staging two £100,000 races on the same card was too much for Musselburgh to fund.

"A small course like Musselburgh has to choose the days it competes in the Premier League, and two £100,000 races would be too much for us to fund," he said. "We've had to cut our cloth because of Covid but I would hope both races can return to their 2019 levels next year.

Line Of Reason: won this race in 2017Credit: John Grossick Racing Photography

"It is a shame we lost the old slot for the Scottish Sprint Cup when it was before Royal Ascot and under the right circumstances, with ITV coverage as well. I'd love to move it to another day with a bigger prize fund again. We'll just have to see if that can happen."

When Line Of Reason captured this contest in the summer of 2017 for trainer Paul Midgley and owner Andy Taylor, they pocketed £62,250 of the £100,000 of prize-money on offer.

Scroll forward to now and the same trainer and owner will take home just £15,462 if either Orvar or Son And Sonnie win this time around.

"It's a shame, to be honest," Midgley said. "We're in strange times and there's no doubt there's not enough money for all levels of the sport, but it's stark when it comes to horses of this grade."

What they say

Paul Midgley, trainer of Tarboosh, Orvar, Latin Five and Son And Sonnie
Three of them have poor draws and one of them, Son And Sonnie, has a good one. He's in the plum stall on the rail and he's in good form, so I think he'll run a good race. To be fair, they're all in good shape it's just the draw makes it difficult for the others.

Mick Appleby, trainer of Caspian Prince
He's in good order and spent the winter in Dubai, where he performed respectably in his races. As long as the ground keeps drying there then he'll have a solid chance.

Caspian Prince: wins the Gosforth Park Cup under Tom MarquandCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Tim Easterby, trainer of Count D'Orsay and Copper Knight
Count D'Orsay is super consistent. He was unlucky once or twice last season and he's been working well ahead of this. Copper Knight's in great form but he'll come on a bit for the run. He's dropped down the handicap a bit so he'll be competitive.

Adam Ryan, son and assistant of Kevin Ryan, trainer of Justanotherbottle
He'll have race fitness on his side after running well a couple of weeks ago and he's got a nice draw as well. We think he can put in a good performance in this race.
Reporting by Peter Scargill

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