Course specialist Time Lock 'in great nick' for bid to repeat last year's Dubai Stakes win

It’s 12 months since Time Lock ran away with this race by four and a quarter lengths and we haven’t seen the same mare since. She was well held in a Group 1 on Champions Day at Ascot last year and is winless in three starts this season, failing to get within 5lb of her best RPR.

Harry Charlton must be worried because he reaches for a tongue strap and it’s not something he has done often since taking over the yard. Time Lock will be only his third runner in that aid and the other two were both beaten, so it can hardly be considered a plus.

Nevertheless, Time Lock probably won’t need to reproduce the performance of last year to win the race again. The median RPR of the last ten winners comes in at around 111 and she recorded 112 a year ago, suggesting that she can underperform and still come out on top.

Place Of Safety is the opposite in that she needs to improve significantly on her highest RPR of 102 to hold any chance. However, she has run only three times and was 13lb better than her previous start when second to Divina Grace on the July course last time, so she is progressive.

She travelled like the best horse in that race and should have improved further physically after 55 days off the track since. That may be enough for her to reverse the places with Divina Grace, but whether she is up to beating everything else is questionable.

Mistral Star has the form to compete with an on-song Time Lock, but her three highest RPRs have come on good or good to firm ground and she needs to prove she goes on slower. The soft-ground punters are more likely to be drawn to Sea Of Roses, who is 12031 in those conditions.
Analysis by Graeme Rodway

Ground and weather

The going was described officially as soft on Thursday and clerk of the course Andrew Morris said: "The forecast is uncertain but there could be a sustained band of rain overnight."

What they say

Rae Guest, trainer of Divina Grace
I don't want too much rain as she likes fast ground. She's in great form and I'd be very hopeful if the ground were right. She's improved all season.

Hughie Morrison, trainer of Mistral Star
I hope there's no more rain. It would be disappointing if the ground were to go too soft. She's got plenty of ability and is a proper Group horse. She was unlucky when she got stopped in the Pinnacle Stakes at Haydock early in the season and last time she was fourth in the Yorkshire Oaks, which was as good a fillies' race as has been run in Britain or Ireland this year.

Oisin Murphy, rider of Sea Of Roses
She won well at Windsor last time and looks really well in her coat. It's an open race. Time Lock is the highest rated and has course form but we're hoping Sea Of Roses can run really well.

Harry Charlton, trainer of Time Lock
She's in great nick and we're very happy with her. She took a bit of time to come out of the Princess of Wales's Stakes and this was the most obvious target. She was good in this last year and goes well on the track. She's been there three times and won twice and been second once. Like everyone we're hoping the rain doesn't hit as much as it could.

Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Place Of Safety
She ran a very good race to be second in the Chalice Stakes on her first start in Listed company. She's had a freshen up since then and goes there in good order, but they're forecast a lot of rain overnight and that's an unknown for her.
Reporting by David Carr