Could the draw hold the key again? Expert analysis and trainer quotes for Abbaye

Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines (Group 1) | 5f | 2yo+ | Sky

Only five horses in the last eight runnings of this prestigious sprint at Longchamp (ran at Chantilly in 2016 and 2017) have finished in the first three from a double-figure draw and four of those winners came from stall five or lower.

That will make this race an enticing prospect for draw punters because only one of the top eight in the overnight market will come from those bottom five stalls and that is Teresa Mendoza.

The Ken Condon-trained filly ran the best race of her career when beaten a neck into second by Mitbaahy at Newbury last time and is 2lb better off at the weights with that rival. Combine that with her better draw – Mitbaahy is in 15 – and Teresa Mendoza should reverse the places.

Irish-trained sprinters have won two of the last ten runnings, including last year's winner A Case Of You. He came from stall five 12 months ago, though, and is out in 19 this season.

Maarek was the other Irish winner and he came from stall seven, which is the place from which overnight favourite The Platinum Queen will emerge on Sunday.

The Platinum Queen's chance appears to rest on her getting all the allowances from the older horses and she couldn't quite take advantage of a similar situation in the Nunthorpe. However, there is no Highfield Princess in this line-up and she might have the speed to cross to the rail.

The form of her second behind Trillium at Doncaster took a knock when that rival was well held in the Cheveley Park at Newmarket last week, though, so she might need to improve once again.

The final word has to go to Berneuil, who won the principal trial for this race, the Prix du Petit Couvert, for the second year in a row over course and distance last month. He couldn't get competitive in this from stall 14 last year and has had no luck again this time, drawing 18.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

Queen could reign in Paris

Plenty have tried and none have succeeded for 44 years, yet the betting suggests this could be the day another two-year-old beats their elders to win the Abbaye.

Every juvenile runner has been beaten since Sigy scored impressively for Freddy and Criquette Head in 1978, though Superstar Leo and Kingsgate Native managed second places among the 16 to have had a go since the turn of the century.

However, The Platinum Queen has proved herself against older horses, beating all bar Highfield Princess in the Nunthorpe Stakes at York in August.

With that rival bypassing Longchamp, she has long been favourite for her second crack at an all-aged Group 1, despite being beaten narrowly by Trillium in the Flying Childers at Doncaster since.

The speedy filly is owned by Middleham Park Racing, whose racing manager Tim Palin said: "She's come out of the Flying Childers very well and she was unlucky in that – she was in front a yard before the line and a yard after.

"This four furlongs and 213 yards is her playing at home and the race usually suits prominent racers and those drawn in single figures.

"It's a wide-open race but arguably she has the best recent form as she was second to a world-class mare at York."

What they say

Ken Condon, trainer of Moss Tucker and Teresa Mendoza
Teresa Mendoza is coming here on the back of a career-best effort and the owner has sportingly decided to let her take her chance. She's got a nice draw and seems to be in great form so we're hoping for a big run. Moss Tucker hasn't fared as well on the draw front but he's had a great season and is a very consistent performer.

Mauricio Delcher Sanchez, trainer of Coeur De Pierre
He ran very well in the prep race and with the the sprinters they often end up beating one another in turn. It's very open and it will come down to who is in form on the day and gets the best trip. He can be there at the finish.

Yann Lerner, joint-trainer of Berneuil and Miramar
After the week we've had the bad draw for Berneuil is another blow. He's in fantastic form and has really improved since winning on Trials day. Unfortunately stall 18 doesn't make the task easy but we’ll try. Miramar ran very well last time and the forecast rain will help. We are putting cheekpieces on for the first time.

Roger Varian, trainer of Mitbaahy
He's in really good form and he's a progressive three-year-old who should handle the ground. I'd like him to be drawn lower but we can't change that.

Adrian Nicholls, trainer of Tees Spirit and Mo Celita
I'm delighted with the draw for the two of them. Tees Spirit has never run on ground like this but he's never let me down all year. Mo Celita likes it soft and ran a great race last year, just caught for third on the line.

Chris Dixon, part-owner of Raasel
He's in good form and if he'd had a low draw I'd have expected him to run well but it's going to be very difficult from where he is – we'll talk to Jason Watson and try to find a way.

Aidan O'Brien, trainer of New York City
His last run in the Flying Five was his best run for some time so hopefully he can back it up. He seems to be in good form since the Curragh.

Karl Burke, trainer of White Lavender
She's drawn one, which is fantastic, and she's a high-class filly. She'll love the ground and a fast-run five furlongs. The Abbaye can throw up funny results and she was unlucky when she was third in a Group 2 at Chantilly as she was hampered at the start.

Ed Crisford, joint-trainer of Flotus
We'd prefer quicker ground but she's run some good races over five furlongs on the soft and she's in great form. She's not got a bad draw and there's some speed on her inside.
Reporting by David Carr

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