'If Cold Case runs to the form he showed at Doncaster he's the one to beat'

Saturday: 3.21 Redcar
William Hill Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed) | 6f | 2yo | ITV4/RTV

It is perhaps slightly surprising that favourites have such a good record in Redcar's most famous race considering at least 20 horses have lined up in eight of the last ten runnings. Five won and that excludes two relatively short-priced winners at odds of 7-2 and 100-30 in that period.

The standard required to land the Two-Year-Old Trophy has fluctuated throughout the decade, ranging from the high of 2014 winner Limato's 116 on Racing Post Ratings down to a modest figure of 82 set by 2016 scorer Wick Powell.

Limato is among three winners in that timeframe who produced a three-figure RPR in the Trophy and Cold Case is the only horse who has reached that level.

Cold Case sets a clear form standard and landed a valuable contest at Doncaster last time after finishing a good third in the Group 2 Gimcrack at York.

The lucrative juvenile sales race programme suits Cold Case rather than bashing heads with the likes of Sakheer and Blackbeard in races like the Mill Reef and Middle Park, and he has sound claims of adding to the recent fortune of market leaders.

Barefoot Angel challenges Cold Case for early favouritism but looks a little short in the betting carrying a Group 3 penalty, while Maylandsea has failed to match the form of her second to Dramatised in the Queen Mary in three subsequent outings.

It could instead be worth chancing two at bigger prices each-way in Holguin and Jumbeau.

Holguin only has a length and a half to find with Cold Case on Doncaster running and that was his first appearance after a mid-season break, while Jumbeau is out of a 7f winner and shaped as if a step up in trip would suit when fifth to Little Big Bear in the Windsor Castle Stakes. Providing she handles this slower surface she should go well.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

No catching Cold?

There has scarcely been a decent two-year-old race all season that Karl Burke has not had a good shout in and he has every chance of another big win on Saturday.

Four of his powerful team of juveniles have already won Group or Listed races this season, with Dramatised and Holloway Boy scoring a memorable double at Royal Ascot.

Although the trainer came up slightly short in Group 1 company at Newmarket last weekend, he could be the one to beat seven days on.

Gimcrack Stakes third Cold Case goes unpenalised for his victory in the Weatherbys Scientific £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes at Doncaster, whereas the Richard Fahey-trained Barefoot Angel carries 5lb extra for her Group 3 win at Ayr.

Cold Case has improved his Racing Post Rating in every one of his five starts and Burke said: "It's the end of the season but he looks in great shape and I'm very happy with him. I don't think we've got to the bottom of him yet.

"Richard Fahey's filly is decent and has shown a good level of form. But if Cold Case runs to the form he showed at Doncaster he's the one to beat."

Cold Case (far rail) beats Alpha Capture at DoncasterCredit: Edward Whitaker

What they say

Adrian Nicholls, trainer of King's Crown
He was a bit disappointing at York and I don't know the reason but I'm hoping he'll appreciate an ease in the ground, which he hasn't had all year. It's a competitive race but he's been racing at the top table all season and not been beaten that far.

Michael Dods, trainer of Tatterstall
He's a sharp horse and any rain would be a negative as he's all speed. I could see him developing into a very nice five-furlong horse next year and whether he'll get six, time will tell. But he deserves to take his chance.

David O'Meara, trainer of Maria Branwell
I was a little disappointed with how she checked out at Ayr last time but we might have made too much use of her. She has a good draw and I think she'll like the ground and stay the six well, so she has a good chance.

Simon Turner, director of racing for Hambleton Racing, owners of Washington Heights
We're looking forward to it. It's a pretty strong race but he goes there with a squeak. He took a nice step forward at York and he's been trained for this since then so I hope he'll be thereabouts.

Tom Clover, trainer of Jumbeau
She had a setback after Ascot but she's over that and has done well physically, she's grown a lot. She seems well and she's done some nice work. The form of the Windsor Castle Stakes looks strong and the extra furlong should suit her but the ground is a worry if it turns soft.

Alice Haynes, trainer of Lady Bullet
I'm delighted with her and the more rain the better. It was a good run last time and she's come out of it well. I don't know about the draw but this looks a good opportunity for her.

Tim Palin, racing manager to Middleham Park Racing, owners of Maylandsea
She's top on adjusted Racing Post Ratings and she ran well in a very deep race for the Cheveley Park Stakes last week where she stayed the six furlongs well, but I'd be worried if the ground got very soft as she wouldn't want a slog in a bog.

John Quinn, trainer of Signora Camacho
She's been very consistent all year and ran very well at Naas last time. The ground will be fine for her.

Brian Ellison, trainer of Oahu
He's definitely improved. This is his trip. I hope they get a bit of rain.
Reporting by David Carr

Saturday previews:

2.42 Newmarket: Chapple-Hyam and Weld on Sun Chariot stars Saffron Beach and Homeless Songs

3.00 Ascot: 'It looks winnable' - David Evans drawn to Group 3 for star sprinter Rohaan

3.25 Longchamp: Aidan O'Brien: 'Kyprios is a good-moving horse, so hopefully it's not too soft'

3.36 Ascot: 'We may be in business' - whose turn is it to land another big Ascot handicap?

Longchamp Saturday: Can Arc absentee Verry Elleegant bounce back from disappointment in Royallieu?

4.02 Gowran Park: Track and trip ideal for Easy Game with stablemate Franco posing biggest threat

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