Can Tom Marquand's catch-me-if-you-can tactics on Quickthorn work again in Lonsdale Cup?

How can a horse who dominated last year’s Lonsdale Cup by 14 lengths and slammed four of these rivals in the Goodwood Cup 24 days ago be anything other than a short-priced favourite?

Many will observe those two bare facts and conclude backing Quickthorn at the odds at which he is available is a gift of the highest generosity by bookmakers. The reality is tactical lapses from every rider other than Tom Marquand contributed to those two front-running exhibitions.

Quickthorn earned a Racing Post Rating of 119 fair and square for those victories. Yet excluding the 82 RPR he registered when clearly below form in the Prix du Cadran last October, his four RPRs between those two standout efforts average out at 110. The mean RPR of his four races before the Lonsdale was of a similar standard (112).

The common trait between those eight performances was a reluctance from opposition riders to allow Quickthorn the chance to execute perfectly the catch-me-if-you-can strategy.

That is not to criticise Quickthorn. At his best he is a top-class stayer capable of beating the best in the business at the trip. That fact is also true of many others in this field.

Coltrane has twice run to an RPR of 119. Broome has a 120 on his CV in the Dubai Gold Cup. So does Courage Mon Ami through his Ascot Gold Cup heroics.

Even Goodwood Cup fifth Giavellotto (peak RPR of 114), who was as eyecatching as any, holds a verdict over Quickthorn on the Knavesmire. He had three lengths to spare over his old foe in the Yorkshire Cup in May. Essentially, these stayers are closely matched on form and tactics could decide the day.

World-famous UFC star Conor McGregor speaks with conviction about the importance of defeat and learning from it in sport to rechannel the mind. Make no mistake, every jockey involved in that Lonsdale Cup lost badly apart from Marquand.

They refocused and learned their lessons in subsequent clashes with Quickthorn, of course, right up until Marquand won the battle again at Goodwood where his peers were caught napping. Expect the opposite now with the wounds of Oisin Murphy and Frankie Dettori on Coltrane and Courage Mon Ami among others fresh in the memory from that Group 1.

There is every chance Quickthorn will be allowed to do what Quickthorn does best at least once more before his career is out. The surprise will be if the 2023 Lonsdale Cup is when that occurs.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

Last chance for Atzeni

Andrea Atzeni has had a revival in fortunes since he landed a contract to ride in Hong Kong and could be in for a last hurrah on Giavellotto before he leaves for the Far East on Monday.

The Sardinian was in the plate when the chestnut outgunned Eldar Eldarov in the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup at the track in May and bids to become the first horse since staying legend Stradivarius in 2019 to win both races.

Trainer Marco Botti said: “Andrea is off to Hong Kong so this could be his chance for a last big win following his Group 1 in France last weekend. Quickthorn got a massive early advantage at Goodwood last time but it should be a different story for Giavellotto on good ground this time around. He’s only run three times this year, so is still a relatively fresh horse.”

He added: “It’s a strong field but he’s probably a few lengths better at York as he showed when winning the Yorkshire Cup. He seems to enjoy going left-handed and it was either this or the Irish St Leger for him, but waiting for that would be a gamble as if it went soft over there he wouldn’t like it.”

Gosdens target another Lonsdale win

Four of the last five winners of this have come from Clarehaven Stables in Newmarket, with three of those victories provided by Stradivarius who was also the last horse to carry the 3lb Group 1 penalty to success in this race.

John and Thady Gosden are represented this time by Courage Mon Ami, the still relatively unexposed Ascot Gold Cup winner who finished sixth and was never able to land a blow behind runaway winner Quickthorn in the Goodwood Cup.

Courage Mon Ami and Frankie Dettori win the Ascot Gold CupCredit: Edward Whitaker

Thady Gosden said: “Courage Mon Ami put up a brilliant performance for a relatively inexperienced horse to win the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot.

"He was then in a similar position to most of the field at Goodwood where Quickthorn put up an impressive, front-running performance. The Lonsdale Cup is a race we like and this is the next staying feature of the year."

Morrison apprehensive of fast ground for Quickthorn

Quickthorn proved far too good for his rivals when making all to win the Lonsdale Cup last year by 14 lengths and bids to join some of the staying greats with a second win in this Group 2.

However, the six-year-old must carry a 3lb penalty this time after deploying the same tactics as last year's destructive Lonsdale win in the Group 1 Goodwood Cup 24 days ago, with Tom Marquand retaining the ride after that dominant six-length win.

Quickthorn ran his rivals ragged in the Goodwood Cup three weeks agoCredit: Edward Whitaker

Hughie Morrison said: "You couldn’t say he didn’t have a hard race when winning the Goodwood Cup on soft ground as he did last time and we’ll have to see how backing him up 24 days later goes.

"Ideally, he would have liked some juice in the ground but it doesn’t look as if we’re going to get it."

What they say

Aidan O’Brien, trainer of Broome
He ran well at York in the Yorkshire Cup back in May. He seems to like it here and he's in good form, so hopefully he can run well.

Oisin Murphy, rider of Coltrane
Andrew Balding has been very happy with the horse since Goodwood, where he didn’t have a very hard race, and he has good form at York in the past. I’m really looking forward to getting back on him.

Ralph Beckett, trainer of River Of Stars
It will be tough for her but she is tough and she's shown a clear liking for York.
Reporting by David Milnes

Friday previews:

1.50 York: 'It would be such a fairytale were he to win' - quotes and analysis as Paul Hanagan gears up for final ride  

3.00 York: 'It's the right time' - Kylian ready for step up in trip as experience meets potential in mouthwatering Gimcrack  

3.35 York: 'We're happy with her but it's a spicy race' - Highfield Princess primed for Nunthorpe Stakes repeat  

6.55 Hamilton: Jim Goldie 'trying to do the same again' as he saddles three in bid for another £100,000 Lanark Silver Bell win  

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