Can she do it again? Arc hope Mqse De Sevigne takes on Blue Rose Cen in bid for Prix Rothschild repeat

If your aim is to prep for an ambitious career swansong in Europe's toughest race, then building up to the big day in slightly calmer waters might not be the worst idea in the world. 

Owner-breeder Edouard de Rothschild has made no secret of his desire to run Mqse De Sevigne in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe via one or both of the fillies-and-mares-only Group 1s she landed in Deauville last summer, and you could make a pretty strong argument that she won't need to exceed her winning performance from 12 months ago in the Prix Rothschild to get the job done here.

Mqse De Sevigne put up a Racing Post Rating of 115 when holding off stablemate Life In Motion last season and, among her six rivals here, Kelina and Rogue Millennium have matched that figure once each in their careers, while only Blue Rose Cen is a more frequent visitor to the loftier ratings perches. 

Now consider that Mqse De Sevigne has reeled off RPRs of 120, 114, 116 and 115 in her four subsequent starts, and she begins to look a shade of value at anything around even-money or odds-against. 

Andre Fabre is unlikely to have her at concert pitch following a short summer break but her nearest pursuer in the Prix d'Ispahan, Horizon Dore, was beaten only a length and three-quarters by Auguste Rodin on his next start at Royal Ascot.

Blue Rose Cen is the only rival who has a body of work – as opposed to a single performance – that could seriously threaten Mqse De Sevigne, and she has looked ready for a return to racing against her own sex after failing to make the frame on two starts in open company for new trainer Maurizio Guarnieri. 

The case for a revival of fortune for last year's Poule d'Essai des Pouliches and Prix de Diane heroine rests not only by racing against fillies and mares, but also by the drop back in trip to a mile, although Guarnieri appears to be using this race as a means to an end ahead of the Prix Jean Romanet back over ten furlongs. 

Blue Rose Cen: drops back to a mile in her first race this season against her own sexCredit: Edward Whitaker

Kelina ran a decent comeback race over the same seven furlongs as her win in the Group 1 Prix de la Foret last October, and Deauville's fast, flat mile should pose no problems on the stamina front, although unexpected rain on Friday night has not helped her cause. 

Excellent Truth attempts to make the jump from Listed success and probably requires the favourite to underperform, for all that she is relatively unexposed at this trip. 

With question marks against those three, the most reliable alternative to Mqse De Sevigne is Rogue Millennium, who – like Kelina – ran below par here 12 months ago, but then rebounded to finish a fine second to Tahiyra in the Matron and has been consistent without winning in three starts this year for Joseph O'Brien. 

Rogue Millennium and Ocean Jewel carry Irish hopes

Having finished only third to Ocean Jewel on their respective returns to action at the Curragh when short of room at a crucial stage, Rogue Millennium has turned in decent efforts in defeat to Running Lion at Ascot and Porta Fortuna in the Falmouth Stakes. 

With Dylan Browne McMonagle suspended, Mickael Barzalona gets the call-up for the first time.

Joseph O'Brien said: "She came out of Newmarket very well and is in good form. It's not a big field but it looks like a very competitive race. We think the conditions will suit her nicely and it would be great if she could run into the places."

Ocean Jewel and Billy Lee winning the Lanwades Stud Stakes at the CurraghCredit: Patrick McCann

Ocean Jewel was quite keen in the early stages of her rematch with Rogue Millennium in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes but, if settling better, has scope for further improvement at a mile after just three starts at the trip.

What they say

Maurizio Delcher Sanchez, trainer of Excellent Truth
This is a big challenge but she has improved all through her career as she has matured and is in a really good place. She likes the track and, having win at Listed and Group 3 level, she deserves to have a crack at a Group 1.

Andre Fabre, trainer of Mqse De Sevigne
She won this race last year but it wasn't by three lengths. There's some opposition and it very much depends on how the race develops and whether there's a good pace because she's not a specialist miler, she needs a bit more distance. But she was rested for a bit after the Prix d'Ispahan and she's fresh.

The Rothschild family and the Pouchin family celebrate Mqse De Sevigny's victory in last year's Prix Rothschild

Pierre-Yves Bureau, racing manager to Wertheimer et Frere, owners of Kelina
She needed the run last time and hadn't quite stripped down to her fighting weight, having not run since the Breeders' Cup. We were waiting on the better ground earlier in the year. If the good version of Kelina turns up she has every right to be there at the finish. As to her performance in the Rothschild last year, I don't think it was the straight course, she just didn't show her best form for whatever reason.

Maurizio Guarnieri, trainer of Blue Rose Cen
After Ascot she was given an easy time of it before going back to normal training. The main objective is the Prix Jean Romanet [in three weeks], so she's not at 100 per cent but she's in good form. I hope she'll act on the straight track and that Christophe Soumillon can get her to finish off her race well.

Gianluca Bietolini, trainer of Ribaltagaia
She's in good form and I'm not worried about her up the straight mile. The question marks for me are whether she copes with the rain that has got into the ground – I don't think it will bother her but they're not her ideal conditions – and whether she can put it up to the older fillies.

Ground and weather

Two hours north of Paris, Deauville has not been spared the rain that made itself an unintended feature of Friday night's Olympics opening ceremony, with the ground measured at 4.2 (holding) on the penetrometer – which is at least soft on the GoingStick – after 8.5mm fell overnight. 

Saturday and Sunday are forecast to be dry and conditions could tighten up to around 3.6 (souple), which is no worse than good to soft in British and Irish terms.

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