Can punters trust the quick Derby turnaround time in the King Edward VII?

Friday: 5.35 Royal Ascot
King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) | 1m4f | 3yo colts and geldings | ITV/Sky

For someone who has crafted a reputation as the dominant trainer of middle-distance colts, it is a surprise Aidan O’Brien has saddled only one King Edward VII Stakes winner since 2004.

A logical reason for that is the King Edward VII’s proximity to the Derby. O’Brien is regularly mob-handed in the Classic and this race is evidently less of a priority for the operation.

Changingoftheguard ran with credit at Epsom when attempting to make all 13 days ago, fading in the final two furlongs in first-time cheekpieces.

That may be worth forgiving as the Ballydoyle trainer’s record with horses in that equipment first time is a meagre 6-66 (nine per cent) and significantly below his 19 per cent overall strike-rate.

The cheekpieces are left off and this is a class drop for Changingoftheguard, whose chance hinges on his ability to handle the quick turnaround and whether Ryan Moore is allowed to control things up front.

Lysander is the other colt with recent front-running form and could try to lead. He looked right out of the top drawer when sauntering clear in a Newcastle novice, although there seemed to be no excuses on his next outing when he ran third in the Cocked Hat Stakes. It was still an improved effort and he merits his place in this company.

Charlie Appleby is providing a stern challenge to O’Brien’s supremacy with three-year-old males and the Godolphin trainer relies on Ottoman Fleet. The manner in which he landed a Listed race at Newmarket having stumbled badly on leaving the stalls served notice we were dealing with a top talent after just two runs, although the value has dried up now.

Watch that Listed race and you will struggle to understand how Ottoman Fleet can be a 2-1 shot with third home Savvy Victory backable at 20-1.

Savvy Victory travelled better at Newmarket and was forced to switch wide to get a run, finishing with something left in the tank.

While Ottoman Fleet is greatly respected and could improve beyond the more-exposed Savvy Victory, the price differential is wrong.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

'He's a relentless galloper' - Lordan

Changingoftheguard was best of the Ballydoyle brigade in the Derby and Wayne Lordan, on board that day, described him as a "relentless galloper who doesn't really quicken but stays galloping and is very, very genuine".

The question for punters is whether you can trust him at such a short price given the Derby was just 13 days ago.

The only horse from the Epsom Classic who has run since is Nahanni (seventh) and he proved a bitter disappointment in the Queen's Vase on Wednesday, finishing only sixth and beaten eight lengths.

Given his official rating of 110 and the fact he is rated 8lb clear of everything bar Ottoman Fleet, who has yet to be given a mark, Changingoftheguard should take some catching if he is fully recovered from his Epsom exertions.

Aidan O'Brien, who saddled Japan to win this race in 2019 after finishing third to Anthony Van Dyck in the Derby, agreed there was not much time between Epsom and Royal Ascot, but was hoping his son of Galileo could cope with the quick turnaround.

O'Brien said: "This looked a nice race for him. The Derby is not too long ago and, while he seems to have come out of it in good shape, you never really know how it has affected them until you run them. We haven't done a lot with him since Epsom, just kept him ticking over."

What they say

Charlie Fellowes, trainer of Grand Alliance
I thought it was quite an impressive run in the Derby, particularly considering he only really ran for two furlongs. Danny [Tudhope] got off laughing and said he had never finished a race with such sore legs – he was squeezing and pushing all the way. Unsurprisingly, we're putting headgear on this time and he has looked good working in it at home.

Charlie Appleby, trainer of Ottoman Fleet
We have been pleased with him going into this. He is the least experienced in the field but we are optimistic that stepping up to a mile and a half will see further improvement. Hopefully, he should be very competitive.

Sean Woods, trainer Savvy Victory
We ran him at Newmarket as a trial for the Derby to see how he would handle the Dip. He got very unbalanced there and didn't like it, so we didn't go to Epsom and came here instead. He's in very good order and we've been able to give him a nice break since Newmarket.
Reporting by David Jennings

Friday at Royal Ascot:

2.30 Ascot: 'She's working really well and she's probably overpriced' - key Albany quotes

3.05 Ascot: 'He's in the form of his life' - analysis and quotes for the Commonwealth Cup

3.40 Ascot: Why it could pay to look past two market leaders in the Duke of Edinburgh

4.20 Ascot: Thady Gosden: Inspiral is ready for a race but she will improve from it

5.00 Ascot: 'She's been laid out for this' - the Queen's runner primed for Sandringham

6.10 Ascot: Wesley Ward: We've just been messing but now we're planning to get serious

Sign up here. New customers only. First single & each-way bet only. 5p minimum stake. 3 x £10 bet tokens. Free bet stakes not included in returns. Free bets exclude virtuals. Free bets are non-withdrawable. No free bet expiry. Eligibility restrictions and further T&Cs apply. 18+. begambleaware.org.