Can Nostrum prove he is still the real deal following a wind operation in Dubai Duty Free Cup?

What to expect from Nostrum? That is the big question punters will be asking themselves because the son of Kingman looked the real deal on a couple of occasions as a two- and three-year-old, but has yet to build on that form and is without a win in two starts at four.

He can’t have been the easiest to train because he has had only eight starts in his four years and two of his last three runs have resulted in heavy defeats.

However, he did show a lot more to take second in the Criterion Stakes at Newmarket last time after a two-month break. He was beaten only three-quarters of a length by winner Noble Dynasty and recorded the second-highest Racing Post Rating of his career, so was definitely back on track.

He needs to prove he can reproduce that after another break following wind surgery. The statistics look good for him on that score because trainer Sir Michael Stoute has a 31 per cent strike-rate (7-22) with runners after the procedure, so maybe the real Nostrum will stand up.

He will need to in order to beat Lake Forest, though, because the progressive three-year-old recorded a career-best RPR of 116 when second behind Elite Status at Newbury in July, and has now recorded back-to-back personal bests. There is a chance he can improve again.

Elite Status might have finished only eighth in the Sprint Cup at Haydock next time, but Lake Forest was a half-length in front of Kind Of Blue at Newbury and that rival went on to finish second in that Group 1 at Haydock. That form makes Lake Forest the one to beat this time.
Analysis by Graeme Rodway

Going update

The going was good to soft, good in places on Thursday morning and clerk of the course George Hill said: "We expect the track to dry out a little bit tomorrow and we'll probably be more good ground than good to soft.

"However, the forecast looks slightly challenging, with a 30 per cent chance of thundery showers in the afternoon. We're not in a bad position for this time of year and fingers crossed those heavy showers stay south of us."

What they say

Ed Walker, trainer of English Oak
There's every reason to hope he'll run much more like he did at Royal Ascot, where he was hugely impressive in the Buckingham Palace Handicap. A shoe shifted when he ran in the Lennox, which meant his eventual fourth was a brave effort.

Eve Johnson Houghton, trainer of Jumby
He's in great form and I'm hoping the ground is dry enough for him. He loves Newbury, so we're hopeful.

Jumby and Charlie Bishop win the John of Gaunt Stakes at Haydock

Jumby: in action at Newbury on FridayCredit: John Grossick

James Savage, assistant trainer of Nostrum
He's in a good place, training well. We've just tweaked his wind after his last run and brought him along quietly. Seven furlongs on a straight course should suit him well.

William Haggas, trainer of Lake Forest
He's very well and we're desperate to run, but he's a fast ground horse, so we need it to dry out. This is his first try at seven furlongs after two good runs this season.

Ollie Sangster, trainer of Louis Barthas
This looks competitive and he has a good bit to find but he ran well in France last time, finishing the race off well and suggesting it was worth trying seven furlongs.

Tom Clover, trainer of Witness Stand
He won at the Glorious meeting and did well to carry a lot of weight when second at Goodwood last time. He's versatile in terms of ground and we're looking forward to seeing how he shapes back at this level.
Reporting by Jonathan Harding

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