Can Nicholls extend record in first valuable handicap hurdle of season?

Wasdell Group Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) | 4yo+ | 2m3f100y [SKY]

Paul Nicholls banged in eight winners at this two-day Chepstow fixture last year and often targets the meeting, but the Silver Trophy hasn’t been a race in which he has been prolific.

Nicholls won it in 2006 with Taranis, but that is his sole success in the contest and it’s interesting he chooses to run Dargiannini in such a hot race on his debut for the yard.

Dargiannini won three of his four starts for former trainer Harry Whittington, all at Sedgefield, but those bumper and novice hurdles were a world away from this test.

Nicholls could have stayed low-key, but the fact he pitches Dargiannini in at the deep end in this Grade 3 at such an early stage of his career suggests he must be showing plenty at home.

Paul Nicholls enjoyed an excellent return at this meeting in 2020Credit: Edward Whitaker

The big question is whether he will be ready for such a stern test, from a mental perspective as much as a physical one, and the record of Nicholls’ new recruits doesn’t blow you away.

The trainer has saddled just 11 winners from 76 runners who were making their first start for the stable after leaving another yard. That is only 14 per cent and they are often overbet.

Judging by the combined prices of all 76 runners, the expected number of winners from that sample is around 18 and that means if you divide Nicholls’ actual winners (11) by his expected winners (18), his A/E figure returns just 0.61. That is well below the par of 1.

Nobody has a better record in the race than Nicholls’ former assistant Dan Skelton, who has saddled two winners and two seconds from just seven runners in the last ten seasons.

Skelton relies on Proschema, who makes his seasonal reappearance after 148 days off. The trainer’s last winner, Flash The Steel in 2019, was also returning from a summer break.
Analysis by Graeme Rodway

Can Rocco hit the target again for that man Emmet Mullins?

Emmet Mullins enjoyed a stellar 2020-21 season with his runners in Britain and Blackstair Rocco bids to kick off the new campaign in similar style.

The son of Shirocco has been paddling in shallower waters this summer ahead of this €75,000 target, with a string of twos beside his name since breaking his maiden over hurdles at Down Royal in June.

Emmet Mullins has sent out eight winners from 21 runners in Britain in the last three seasonsCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Talented conditional Kevin Brogan takes a valuable 3lb off and Mullins has shown his talent at placing horses on his trips across the Irish Sea.

"He has been an unlucky horse in that he's gone up a lot in the weights without winning," said Mullins. "He's a good-ground horse, he jumps well and it's a great prize to be going for.

"There aren't many big pots over the trip and we hope he can be competitive."
Reporting by Scott Burton

What they say

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Hooper
He's been on the go all summer and has done really well. He's been chasing the last two times and should have won at Stratford, then he got in a bit of a muddle at Newton Abbot. He was about to go on holiday and come back in the spring, but with the ground the way it is we've decided to give him one more go.

Jamie Snowden, trainer of Chapmanshype
He's got a great win-to-run strike rate. He lost his nerve over a fence, so we brought him back over hurdles and he ran a good race last time to finish second, closing on the winner. He runs off the same mark and if it continues to dry, he should run his race.

Chapmanshype was second on his return to hurdling and runs off the same mark on SaturdayCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Amour De Nuit and Dargiannini
Amour De Nuit is probably on the limit of his handicap mark, but he goes well fresh and has run some nice races. He's got it all to do off his mark. Dargiannini is new to us. He won a bumper and two hurdle races in four starts and hasn't had too much experience for this type of field. He'll have to overcome that, but he has a nice mark and will love the ground. He's a lovely horse and I like what I see from him at home.

Philip Hobbs, trainer of Orbys Legend
He's in very good form and we're very happy with him. Hopefully, he's a horse that could improve.
Reporting by Scott Burton

Saturday's race previews:

1.45 Newmarket: Charlie Appleby seeks flying start in the Zetland with promising Godolphin pair

2.20 Newmarket: 'We know more about him now' - can speedy Coroebus last home in Autumn Stakes?

2.55 Newmarket: 'He has sharpened up again' - Charlie Appleby full of confidence in Native Trail

3.15 York: O'Meara full of hope as Gulliver bids for treble tops in Coral Sprint Trophy

3.35 Newmarket: Six of the best for Mullins as he bids for fourth consecutive Cesarewitch

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