Can Kinross be trusted to be at his Group 1 best on his return in the Chipchase Stakes?

It is right that much of the discussion ahead of the Chipchase Stakes centres on the readiness of Kinross. In a race of striving Group 1 sprinters, at the most charitable description, he has been there and done it several times.

He looks like one to oppose, for two reasons. The first and more obvious is his fitness. In each of his last two campaigns, Kinross has left his reappearance form well behind. He was declared for last week's Jubilee Stakes, and this week he also held an entry for the Criterion Stakes. Any sort of reading between the lines would conclude that he is in search of a starting point, more than a win.

The second point is that Kinross is now seven and he arguably lost a little bit of his edge at six. He had a productive 2023 season, winning two Group 2s and finishing placed in three Group 1s. In 2022, he won two Group 2s but also won a couple of Group 1s by daylight and came within a length of winning the Breeders' Cup Mile.

Spycatcher (left) is out to improve on last year's second place in the Chipchase StakesCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Establishing Kinross' vulnerability is the easy part. Coming down on one to oppose him with is harder. Montassib is bedding in as a minor Group sprinter and will be suited by Newcastle's stiff finish. Spycatcher shaped best in this race last year and has improved since. Albasheer has excellent course form and was one of the eyecatchers of Royal Ascot in last week's Wokingham. Those are just the next three in the betting.

Further down the market, you have Cold Case who a year and three starts ago went off 7-2 for the Commonwealth Cup. Willem Twee is classy on the all-weather and may not have reached his ceiling. He remains lightly raced.

None of those could deal with a bang-in-form Kinross, but it would take a brave punter to believe such a horse will turn up in this race.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Kinross down in grade

Summer sun often means you can take things easier – look at high-class performer Kinross.

He was due to take on top opposition in the Group 1 Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot last Saturday, only for the warm, drying weather to turn the ground unsuitably quick.

Kinross (right): denied by Art Power at Ascot last autumnCredit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

Instead, the seven-year-old drops down two levels to run in Group 3 company for the first time since May 2022, 25 months and 14 Group 1 or Group 2 outings ago.

Although all bar two of his career wins were gained over 7f, Kinross has more than enough speed for this 6f trip as he was third in the July Cup last season and beaten just a neck in the Champions Sprint – a race he had taken decisively 12 months earlier.

"Kinross missed Ascot because of the fast ground," trainer Ralph Beckett said. "He's a winner on a synthetic surface and this is a good starting point for him."

What they say

Karl Burke, trainer of Cold Case and Spycatcher
Cold Case is coming back off an injury and a layoff, so I'm sure he'll come on for it fitness-wise, but he's been working nicely and I'm happy with him. Spycatcher looks fantastic, he's in really good shape. I hope both will run well.

Alastair Donald, racing manager to King Power Racing, owners of Fivethousandtooone
He never got a run in the Wokingham last week so he didn't really have a race. He likes the track and the surface at Newcastle. It looks a strong race but I hope he has an each-way squeak.

Ed Walker, trainer of Popmaster
Quick ground would have been against him in the Wokingham at Ascot and the surface is not an issue here. He should be fine over this stiff six furlongs and he's in cracking form.

James Fanshawe, trainer of Willem Twee
He's back on the all-weather, which he seems to like. It looks a tough race but his form on the all-weather is good.

Richard Brown, racing adviser to Wathnan Racing, owners of Ballymount Boy
He had a bit of a foot abscess we had to get right so that's why he's been off. It's a very hot race, but hopefully we can get him back rolling again and see where we're at.
Reporting by David Carr

Read our Saturday previews:

2.20 Curragh: Can impressive Listowel winner American Bar fend off Ballydoyle runners in Group 2 Airlie Stud Stakes?  

2.55 Curragh: 'If he runs up to his Epsom level he'll run very well' - analysis and quotes for the International Stakes  

3.10 Newcastle: 'I'm really hopeful the plan can pay off' - trainers on their Northumberland Plate chances  

3.25 Newmarket: 'He should have a live chance at this level' - can Noble Dynasty back up career-best run in Group 3 Criterion Stakes?  

3.30 Curragh: Bluestocking faces thrilling clash with Emily Upjohn as she bids for Group 1 breakthrough in British-dominated Pretty Polly  

3.40 Newcastle: 'He's always a horse we've thought a little bit of' - who fancies their chances in a competitive event at Newcastle?  

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