Can Indemnity improve Roger Varian's super strike-rate at Hamilton in feature handicap?

Roger Varian’s strike-rate at Hamilton over the past five years makes Indemnity of immediate interest in this handicap.

The Newmarket trainer has scored with ten of his 20 runners at the Scottish track and PJ McDonald has ridden a winner and a second in two mounts for the yard during that period.

However, compare Indemnity’s overall strike-rate with his SPs and it hardly makes for good reading. The son of Lope De Vega is 1-8 and six of his seven defeats came at odds of 11-4 or shorter (three as favourite).

Indemnity's latest close third at Sandown was a minor improvement on previous efforts, although another step forward will be required for a race packed with depth, while he remains unproven on soft ground.

Arctic Mountain was sent off the 13-8 favourite for a 16-runner handicap at York when last seen but went off too quickly in first-time cheekpieces and his saddle slipped. The balance of his form suggests he is probably worth another shot with the aid left off now.

Giselles Defence won with an ease underfoot at Newbury last time, but has more on his plate off 8lb higher in a far stronger heat.

Four-timer-seeking Good Morning Alex and Lunario are bidding to preserve unbeaten course records. Lunario has been doing his winning on fast ground, but has run well on heavy in the past, while Good Morning Alex has presumably been kept quiet in the height of summer to wait for slower conditions.

Good Morning Alex: unbeaten in two starts at HamiltonCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Theoryofeverything might arrive in worse form than most of his rivals, but his Group 1-winning dam revelled in soft going and this is the first time the son of Frankel will experience that terrain since joining David O’Meara.

Combine that with a drop in trip after non-staying efforts over further recently and there are reasons to be positive about his claims.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

Ground and weather

The going was described as soft, good to soft in places on Monday and conditions are expected to remain the same after less rain hit the track than what was initially forecast.

Clerk of the course Carol Bartley said: "We were due up to 30mm of rain this morning, but we've only managed to get 5mm, which is a godsend really. We are due some light rain in the morning but I can't envision it changing much."

What they say

Iain Jardine, trainer of Paddy The Squire
We had him ready to run at Thirsk but he got a setback and we've given him time to come right. He's been doing plenty of work and we're really happy with him. It's a good starting point on easy ground he likes.

Karl Burke, trainer of Tele Red and Classy Boy
Classy Boy will love the soft ground. He ran in a charity race at Carlisle last week and finished third. It was a nice exercise for him and he's come out of it really well. The ground is key, although he's stepping up in class and he has to put a personal best in to win this. Tele Red likes soft ground, he's won on it before and this is the perfect trip for him. They can both show up nicely, albeit they've got bad draws being drawn widest of the lot.

Alice Haynes, trainer of Lunario
He's in red-hot form and I'm looking forward to running him back there. A bigger field will suit him and hopefully we get a bit more rain.

David Barron, joint-trainer of Good Morning Alex
The ground will be fine for him. He needs to take a step forward again and whether he can do it or not we don't know, but he's kept doing what we've been asking of him.
Reporting by Liam Headd

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