Can Hitman or Stage Star give Paul Nicholls a record-breaking success in the Old Roan Chase?

The Old Roan is a Grade 2 limited handicap and recent runnings have tended towards the handicap end of that definition. Last year, for instance, was an 11-runner race with the top-rated off 158. This year we have a five-runner race, with two in the 160s.

Topweight Ahoy Senor has always saved his best for Aintree. He won the Sefton Novices' Hurdle in 2021, the Mildmay Novices' Chase a year later and has been just touched off in the Bowl in the last two seasons.

You will note that those races have all been at the Grand National meeting. Ahoy Senor ran a perfectly good race on his other visit to Aintree, in the 2022 Many Clouds. He also has the speed to cope with dropping back to two and a half miles. Some of his big wins, like the Towton and the Cotswold Chase, have come off notably fast-finishing sectionals.

Ahoy Senor (right): topweight for the Old Roan thrives at AintreeCredit: Edward Whitaker

The bigger worry today is whether Ahoy Senor's affinity with Aintree will withstand his tendency to start his campaigns slowly. Since he has gone over fences, his form figures first time out read U5P. It is even worse than that suggests, as he was fifth of five in the Charlie Hall on that completed run.

There will be similar concerns over Unexpected Party's readiness. He was campaigned with precision last season, peaking in the spring. It is a trick the Dan Skelton yard pulls off better than just about any other, at least in Britain these days.

We also have two reappearing runners from the Paul Nicholls yard. Nicholls' horses often come on for their first run, and this looks like one of those seasons when even those thought to be fit are still a bit short.

Hitman: one of two runners for Paul NichollsCredit: Edward Whitaker

These concerns ought to be especially strong with Stage Star, the Nicholls first string. He is likely to have a lot of dates in his diary. Stablemate Hitman is a bit of an Aintree specialist who was caught out on his reappearance when favourite for this race last year. Nicholls is well known for learning from his mistakes and you fancy he will have left less to chance this time.

Hitman looks the bet in the race. His record here reads 32260. No wins, sure, but two of those placed runs have been in Grade 1 races and the other was a head second in this race off 159. He races off 157 here, minus Freddie Gingell's 3lb on top of that. He was the top-rated in last year's more handicap-like running. With doubts about the big names in this year's race, he could be worth chancing.
Analysis by Phill Anderson

Going update

The ground was described officially as good, good to soft in places on Saturday, after 75mm of rainfall in October but only 3mm in the last seven days.

The track has been watered to maintain its condition, with another 5mm applied on Saturday morning. Sunday is forecast to start sunny, with the weather turning overcast for racing.

Nicholls aiming for Old Roan record

Nicky Richards, trainer of three-time Old Roan winner Monet's Garden may be about to lose his place in the record book.

Richards is currently level with Paul Nicholls on three winners apiece in the first graded chase of the autumn, but the 14-time champion trainer has two chances of adding to his victories with Kauto Star (2006), Sound Investment (2015) and Frodon (2018).

Hitman came within a head of giving him a fourth success in the race in 2022, although he finished last of 11 last year.

The reappearing Stage Star won the Paddy Power Gold Cup first time out last season and has had a wind operation since his fifth place in the Ryanair Chase in March.

Paul Nicholls: bids for a record-breaking fourth success in the Old Roan ChaseCredit: ITV

"Stage Star is in good shape," Nicholls said. "This looks like a good place for him to start his season and we're looking forward to seeing what he can do.

"The ground should be fine and he goes well fresh too, and going left-handed is perfect for him. He goes off a career-high mark but this looks like a perfect spot to start.

"Hitman was second in this two years ago carrying 11st 12lb but he has a nicer racing weight this time. He looks good in his work and we're hoping he'll run well too."

What they say

Lucinda Russell, trainer of Ahoy Senor
The trip is on the short side, but I have been very pleased with the way he's been going at home. He's had a racecourse gallop and I've tried to get him as trim as we could, but I would expect him to improve for this first run of the season.

Lucinda Russell: runs Ahoy Senor in the Old Roan ChaseCredit: SARAH FARNSWORTH

Dan Skelton, trainer of Unexpected Party
He seems fine. He won over a similar trip to this on his first run last year and he'll be okay on the ground too. This is a similar contest to his return last year as it's a small field but it's very competitive. He was a fine yardstick last year and he looks great at home. This looks like a good starting point for his campaign and, while we aren't expecting fireworks, we're hoping for a good run.
Reporting by Matt Rennie

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