Can Gerri Colombe be trusted to make amends for Cheltenham?
A short head makes all the difference on the day of a race, but should it still matter so much a month later? Only those being kind to the highly admirable The Real Whacker would suggest he is more capable than Gerri Colombe. Although it was The Real Whacker who prevailed by a narrow margin in the Brown Advisory at the Cheltenham Festival, he did so through attitude and jumping rather than ability.
If Gerri Colombe had found a way to sneak home in front that day, he would likely be 4-9 here instead of around even money. We know he was good for it, so why doesn't the market react?
Punters can be slow to forgive, and rightly so, but it is not as though Gerri Colombe's rivals here are angels. Galia Des Liteaux is able, but has only shown herself able on softer ground and had no real excuses when fifth at Cheltenham. Bronn was a bit of a revelation that day but seemed not to get home in third. Thomas Darby and Sholokjack both ran in handicaps last time. Thomas Darby at least beat a worthy rival, Gold Cup Bailly, who runs in a big handicap here on Saturday off a highish mark.
That leaves Complete Unknown, who is a bit of an imponderable but largely for the right reasons. As he rose through the ranks, in that typical slow-burning Paul Nicholls style, he looked a stayer but then at Kempton last time he looked perfectly at home back around 2m4f. He is bred to stay and has run perfectly well over staying trips even though he is 0-3 over 3m and 4-8 at shorter.
He would be the obvious selection to these eyes if you are looking for a way to take on Gerri Colombe. While this does look like Gerri Colombe's race to lose, what he showed at Cheltenham is that he is well capable of passing up opportunities. Punters should adjust how much they allow for that in a young horse according to their own prejudices.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose
What they say
Willie Mullins, trainer of Bronn
He really surprised us at Cheltenham, where he ran a cracker, but he had a very hard race that day and I’m a little worried about coming back so soon. He might be susceptible to a bit of a Cheltenham bounce, but his form is very good.
Paul Nicholls, trainer of Complete Unknown
He's improving and won very well last time at Kempton. He was probably the only one who went in the ground but he's definitely got a chance. Any rain wouldn't go amiss.
Gordon Elliott, trainer of Gerri Colombe
We've decided to come here with him because if we waited for Punchestown you never know how much the ground would have dried by then. It's not that he needs really soft ground or anything like that, but we felt coming here was the best thing to do. He was unlucky at Cheltenham and was in front in another stride. He wanted to win and I love the way he puts his head down and gives you everything. Hopefully we can get back to winning ways here.
Dan Skelton, trainer of Sholokjack and Galia Des Liteaux
Galia Des Liteaux ran very well at Cheltenham. There is plenty of rain forecast, which is really important. She gets 7lb being a mare and I think she'll be competitive. I've been really happy with her since the festival. Sholokjack is in good form. He found everything happening a bit too quickly over two miles five furlongs on a tight track last time and this is much more to his liking. The soft ground will help him as well. He'll probably be the biggest price in the field, but he's a decent horse and I look forward to seeing how he competes at this level over three miles.
Olly Murphy, trainer of Thomas Darby
He's in very good form and we've kept him fresh since he won at Ayr. This looks a hot race and if he's in the winner's enclosure I'll be delighted.
Reporting by James Burn
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