Can Ger Lyons break British losing streak with Thunder Kiss in Middleton?

Thursday: 2.25 York
Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Fillies' Stakes (Group 2) | 4yo+ | 1m2½f | ITV4/RTV

Ger Lyons is a trainer who has me scratching my head. In Ireland, he has rattled along over the last five seasons, saddling more than 300 winners on the Flat for a 17 per cent strike-rate.

However, nothing works when his runners come to Britain. He has just two winners from 26 runners in the last five seasons and you have to go back three years to find them. The run of 15 defeats includes losers at 13-8, 9-4, 5-2 and 7-2, so it's not as if he hasn't had his chances.

So can Lyons get the monkey off his back with the likely favourite here, Thunder Kiss?

She is the best filly in the race on form, courtesy of an impressive victory in Listed company at Cork last time, but there are a few ifs, buts and maybes involved with her for this race.

She will win if she can repeat that effort, but this race is over a furlong and a half shorter than that 1m4f event and maybe she won't be quite as well suited by the trip. She is also unproven on ground quicker than good and, of course, maybe she won't reproduce her form in Britain.

But, all that said, it will still take a smart performance to lower the colours of a filly who recorded an RPR of 113 last time. That would have won five of the last ten runnings of this.

The biggest danger might be Irish compatriot, Forbearance, and there is nothing wrong with Jessica Harrington's British record. She has 17 wins under both codes in the last five seasons.

Forbearance is just 3lb behind Thunder Kiss on RPRs, but does have 1lb to find with leading British contender Ville De Grace, and nobody has saddled more winners of this race than her trainer Sir Michael Stoute (seven).

He has a strong hand again – also represented by Noon Star – and Ryan Moore, who rode both of Stoute's fillies last time, has probably had the choice. He will partner Noon Star.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

'Noon Star will have to improve'

Last year, Noon Star filled the role played by Desert Crown this time around as the Sir Michael Stoute-trained dark horse bidding to enhance their Classic credentials in one of York’s prestigious trials for Epsom.

Things did not quite go to plan for Noon Star, who was sent off favourite for the Musidora Stakes but could not overhaul a superbly ridden Snowfall down York’s long straight. Given Snowfall went on to capture the Cazoo Oaks by a staggering 16 lengths, it may have been too much to ask anyway.

Noon Star’s campaign in 2021 was limited to one more run after York when she finished sixth in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot having been sent off favourite.

Noon Star: successful at Nottingham on her returnCredit: Pool (Getty Images)

However, she returned to form on her comeback this season, capturing the Listed Nottinghamshire Oaks and lines up at York attempting to become the eighth winner of the Middleton Stakes trained by Stoute.

“Noon Star is a very ordinary home-worker but went and won a race which her rating indicated she should be able to win. She’ll have to improve from that,” Stoute said.

Noon Star, running in the colours of Juddmonte Farms, who previously landed this race with the likes of Midday and Promising Lead, is joined in the Middleton by stablemate Ville De Grace.

Nominally the Stoute second string – Ryan Moore rides Noon Star while Richard Kingscote, Stoute’s go-to jockey when Moore is unavailable, is on Ville De Grace – the filly is rated 1lb superior to Noon Star and was just touched off in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket last time

“Ville De Grace was just beaten by a nose last time and she‘s a very consistent, honest filly,” Stoute said. “I think this trip will suit her slightly better than the Newmarket race because she’s won over a mile and a quarter – and she is in good form.

“It’s a very tight, open race. The handicapper’s figures are very, very similar.”
Reporting by Peter Scargill

What they say

Richard Hannon, trainer of Aristia
She hated the ground in France but was very good over course and distance in a Listed race before that. On her day she’s very good.

Colin Keane, rider of Thunder Kiss
I'm looking forward to it. She was very impressive in Cork and has come out of it well. She's coming back in trip and going up in grade, so there are a few unknowns there, but the boss man [Ger Lyons] has her in great form. She always works at home with a filly who has loads of pace, so she's never been short of pace at home anyway.

York day two previews:

3.00: Trainer quotes for some of the leading contenders in the big mile handicap

Dante Stakes: Derby talking horse Desert Crown 'only just ready' says Stoute

Dante analysis: 'Desert Crown is not any old maiden winner - he could go right to the top' (£)

4.10 York: Is there another Winter Power in this Listed sprint for three-year-olds?

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