Can flying filly Alfa Kellenic complete a six-timer? Analysis and quotes for Silver Cup cavalry charge

While there is no obvious draw advantage when the ground is good or quicker over this course and distance, the likes of Paws For Thought, Bergerac, Lucky Man and Rhythm N Hooves can front-run and, given that they’re all drawn ten or lower, it could pay to be on or near the far rail.

Two Tribes, in stall three, should get a decent tow into the race and, while he’s yet to win over six furlongs, he shaped like his turn may be near in a deep race at York two starts ago when denied a clear run at a crucial stage. Soft ground was probably against him at Ascot last time.

Of the aforementioned potential front-runners, Lucky Man is arguably most interesting. He has to carry a 5lb penalty for his success at Windsor last month when taking to first-time blinkers, but he went close in the Ayr Gold Cup from a mark of 96 (effectively 11lb lower here) two years ago and should be a player again if the headgear has the same effect.

From those drawn higher, Alfa Kellenic is the obvious one to focus on in her bid for a six-timer. The daughter of Havana Grey won over this course and distance in July before taking a 7f heritage handicap at York's Ebor meeting.

A 5lb rise is manageable, particularly with the 3lb claim of William Pyle, who was on board for her first three victories. However, three-year-olds have won only one of the last 12 runnings of the Silver Cup.

In stall 15, Brooklyn Nine Nine is 3lb well in for a narrow defeat at Ascot a fortnight ago and has the potential to come on for that first run in three months.
Analysis by Phill Anderson

Lidster: I couldn't be happier with Alfa Kellenic

Alfa Kellenic, one of the biggest success stories of the season, bids to complete a magnificent six-timer in this £65,000 cavalry charge.

The three-year-old filly’s mark has rocketed from 70 to 93 and there is little doubt she will soon be plying her trade in Listed or Group company.

Alfa Kellenic: bids for magnificent six-timer in Virgin Bet Ayr Silver Cup

Alfa Kellenic: bids for magnificent six-timer in Ayr Silver CupCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Trainer Craig Lidster said: “She’s in great order and we’ve got a good draw in stall 22. I’m pretty hopeful.

“The Ayr Gold Cup was always the target but we just missed out. We’ll be looking for black type with her at some stage.”

He added: “She’s not a flashy worker at home; she leaves it all on the racecourse. I couldn’t be happier with her. She looks well in her skin and is moving well. She got a nice mark earlier in the season and has gone from strength to strength.”

What they say

John Quinn, joint-trainer of Mr Wagyu
He had a bit of a blip at Ripon last time. Jason [Hart] doesn’t know if he banged himself coming out of the stalls but he was never going. He seemed okay afterwards and has been training well. He’s run some good races this year and likes Ayr, so we’re hoping for a good run.

Paul Midgley, trainer of Grant Wood and Twelfth Knight
Grant Wood has been fantastic all year. He’s got solid form, goes there in great shape and hopefully will run well. Twelfth Knight is also in very good form. Any rain would be welcome for him.

Robert Cowell, trainer of Rhythm N Hooves
He’s a new horse to us, having joined us from Archie Watson only ten days ago. We’re on a fact-finding mission but we like what we’ve seen of him at home.

Ed Bethell, trainer of Kings Merchant
He’s been training great since his win at Thirsk a fortnight ago. This race looks the logical next spot and the ground will be right up his street. He’s been very good for his owners this year – he’s won four races and deserves to take his chance in a valuable race.

Adrian Keatley, trainer of Roberto Caro
I’d have liked a bit more ease in the ground but he’s drawn well and is a three-year-old on an upward trajectory.

Richard Hannon, trainer of Aramram
He won the valuable apprentice race at Doncaster last week. He’s drawn right down the middle of the track, which could be a good place to be, and has a great each-way shout.

Jessica Macey, trainer of Jenever
I thought we’d get into the Bronze [Cup] but it wasn’t to be. This is a warmer race but he’ll love the ground. He’s tough and genuine and is suited to big-field handicaps as they usually go a fast pace.

Katie Scott, trainer of Curious Rover
He’s in really good form. I’m not sure about the trip. His highest Racing Post Rating is over five and a half furlongs, so I’m hoping six furlongs isn’t too much of a stretch.
Reporting by Richard Birch

Read the rest of our Saturday previews:

1.30 Newbury: 'She would have a decent chance in a competitive race' - analysis and quotes for a tricky World Trophy sprint

3.00 Ayr: 'She's very interesting back against her own sex and up to six furlongs' - analysis and quotes for the Group 3 Firth of Clyde

3.15 Newbury: 'We'll find out how good he is' - can impressive debut winner Powerful Glory follow up in the Mill Reef?

3.35 Ayr: 'He looks an ideal type for this sort of race' - trainers on their Ayr Gold Cup contenders

4.01 Gowran Park: 'The pick of her form would make her hard to beat' - Joseph O'Brien runs six in bid for repeat success