Can Dubai Honour continue his upward curve and cash in on a huge class-drop?
Saturday: 2.05 Kempton
Unibet September Stakes (Group 3) | 1m4f | 3yo+ | ITV/RTV
It's not often that a horse gets beaten nine lengths and still runs to a Racing Post Racing of 120, but that's what happened to Dubai Honour in the Juddmonte International at York.
He ran into the freak that is Baaeed that day and this will no doubt be a welcome drop into calmer waters for a Group 2 winner who appears to be steadily returning to his best form.
Dubai Honour has now posted improved RPRs on his last three starts since returning from a winter break and, if he reproduces his York performance, he should be too good in this grade.
The median RPR of all September Stakes winners in the last ten years is 116 and only Group 1 scorers Enable and Prince Bishop have run to higher figures in this race than the 120 that Dubai Honour recorded last time. There doesn't appear to be anything of their ability in this.
Group 1 glory eluded Dubai Honour by just three-quarters of a length when he was second to Sealiway in last year's Champion Stakes at Ascot and this could be a springboard to that race.
His trainer William Haggas won the race last year with Hamish and John Gosden had won four of the last six before that. Enable accounts for two victories, but Jack Hobbs and Royal Line were also successful for the trainer and he and son Thady will team up with Mostahdaf.
Mostahdaf recorded an RPR of 119 when winning at Sandown in April and his subsequent seconds in the Brigadier Gerard and Hardwicke earned him figures of 117.
All of those efforts would have been good enough to win six of the last ten runnings of this, but he was below form when recording a RPR of just 93 at Newmarket when last seen in July. Maybe not all was right that day as he has been off for 58 days since.
Sir Michael Stoute is another who has won the race in the last ten years. He scored with Arab Spring in 2016 and his representative, Solid Stone, has twice recorded figures of 116-plus. That would have been good enough to win an average running, but this looks better than that.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway
'This looks a nice race for him'
The form Baaeed displayed with his breathtaking display in the Juddmonte International will be tested for the first time when stablemate Dubai Honour appears in this and trainer William Haggas reckons the latter is "in his prime".
The highest-rated runner in the field, Dubai Honour looks to have fine claims as he gets weight from Solid Stone, Gear Up and Mostahdaf.
Easier conditions suit the four-year-old, who was a nine-length fourth to the brilliant Baaeed last month.
"He needs soft ground ideally but he also needs racing as he's only had two runs [in Britain] this year," said Haggas, who won this race 12 months ago with Hamish.
"There has been nowhere to go with him and it's a shame as he's in his prime. This looks a nice race for him and hopefully the surface will be slow enough for him to show his best."
What they say
Bruce Raymond, racing manager to Saeed Suhail, owner of Solid Stone
He's moving and working well – as well as I've seen him do for a long time. He's been off since Royal Ascot, but I suspect that has kind of been the plan because we've just been waiting on the ground and for the weather to break, which it hasn't.
Joseph O'Brien, trainer of Gear Up
He's had a good season and has been holding his form consistently well. Obviously this looks a very hot race but we're hopeful of a good run. Hopefully there's more to come from him, certainly his Leopardstown run last time was his best run of the season and we think he will cope with the all-weather surface. We’re looking forward to seeing how he gets on. He's been quite versatile so far, the all-weather surface is unknown but let's see how we go.
John Gosden, joint-trainer of Mostahdaf
He's had a break since disappointing at the July meeting which may well have been a bit quick after his run at Royal Ascot. He's been working nicely and has a chance in a race in which Dubai Honour sets a solid standard.
David Simcock, trainer of Universal Order
We might find this a bit sharp. We're looking for races that fit and we'd probably like to go down the staying route, so this is a stopgap, but he acts well on the all-weather and is training well. It's likely to be hard for him, but you can put a line through his run at Newmarket two starts ago and it was a solid effort from him, giving weight to a three-year-old, at Newbury last time, although that was over a mile and five and a half furlongs, which is a better trip for him.
Reporting by James Burn
Saturday's race previews:
1.45 Haydock: 'John's really happy with him' – will Reach For The Moon make it as a miler?
2.20 Haydock: William Haggas eyeing another valuable prize with progressive filly Tamilla
2.55 Haydock: 'He was unlucky last time' – Old Borough Cup trainer quotes and analysis
3.30 Haydock: 'He has a big chance' – top trainers on their Sprint Cup runners
3.45 Ascot: can five-strong Godolphin battalion lay siege to competitive Ascot handicap?
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