Can Charyn claim Group 1 glory or will there be another shock in the Queen Anne Stakes?

There are plenty of ways you can prove the struggles of the older horses in the milers' division. The first is simply to observe the lack of supply. Since Frankel, only three winners of the 2,000 Guineas have stayed in training at four. For the Irish version, it has been four while six winners of the Poule d'Essai des Poulains have stayed in training. The figure for the Derby is eight. Milers are more in demand at stud, and so good ones are less likely to hang around.

There is a more applicable point of evidence in the Queen Anne Stakes, which is one of the last chances the older milers get at a Group 1 contest before the three-year-olds join issue. The last six runnings have produced two winners at 33-1, and a further two at 2-7 and 1-6. In different ways, both point to a division without any depth.

This running has the shape of one of those years that produced a shock. Early favourite Charyn casts no longer a shadow than Modern Games or Benbatl, who were favourites in the years when 33-1 shots triumphed. Those horses were both Group 1 winners, whereas Charyn is 0-6 in top-level races.

The prevailing case for Charyn is that, by right, he should be 1-6 in Group 1 races. The head start he gave Audience in the Lockinge, plus the ground he lost by hanging left, could be argued to more than make up for the gap between them.

There is a counter to this. The Lockinge form was a mess, with several leading contenders failing to fire. This will also be a very different race. Audience is unlikely to be given such freedom this time. Big Rock is a habitual front-runner (he stumbled out of the stalls at Newbury), so are a couple of outsiders. The free-going Facteur Cheval is also unlikely to sit and wait while others make mid-race moves.

Had more rain arrived at Ascot, you would fancy Facteur Cheval might have gone off favourite. He thrives in soft ground, but has made a career of confounding expectations including when landing the Dubai Turf at 20-1 when last seen. He was also second to Big Rock, whose change of trainer over the winter remains a serious question mark, in the QEII over this course and distance on British Champions Day.

Paddington proved too good for them again at Goodwood

Facteur Cheval (left): finished ahead of Charyn (second left) in last year's Sussex StakesCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

On a personal tissue, Facteur Cheval would be favourite on just about any ground. That would not change the overarching sense that this looks like an Accidental Agent or a Triple Time year.

Landing on which particular outsider to back is naturally not so easy, but I spent longest considering Poker Face, who tanked through the Sandown Mile and might have beaten Charyn had he been race-fit.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

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Charyn in 'super form' ahead of Royal Ascot opener

Roger Varian is confident Charyn is "thriving" as he bids to make his breakthrough at the top level in the opening race of this year's Royal Ascot, the Queen Anne Stakes.

Owned by Nurlan Bizakov, Charyn has already recorded Listed and Group 2 successes this season and made up considerable ground, although not quite enough, when second to front-runner Audience in the Lockinge Stakes last time out.

Silvestre de Sousa rides Charyn to success in the Doncaster Mile

Charyn: favourite for the Queen Anne Stakes on TusdayCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Varian said: "I don't think he could be in any better shape and seems to be thriving. He's ticked every box at home since the Lockinge and is as good as he could look. If I had my choice I think I'd have had the ground a little softer just to inconvenience some of the others but I think he handles any ground.

"His good run in the St James's Palace Stakes last season was on similar ground as this and he also put in a strong performance on a tighter surface in the Irish 2,000 Guineas, so I don't think at this stage we can be too concerned about the ground. He's in super form."

What they say

Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Audience
He ran a great race at Newbury first time out this year to win the Lockinge and is taking on some familiar rivals again. There is no reason why he can't run another big race and he's been pleasing at home since then. He's versatile as regards ground, so he won't mind fast conditions and hopefully it pans out well from his draw on the stands' side.

Maurizio Guarnieri, trainer of Big Rock
The ground wasn't ideal at Newbury but the main problem was in the stalls because the jockey tried to anticipate the start and when the gates opened he was down on his knees. For a front runner that's a real problem. He finished two lengths behind Inspiral, so while it wasn't a good performance, it wasn't really bad. I received the horse 22 days before the race, so it wasn't easy to really understand everything about him. I could have spent 24 hours a day with the horse but it wouldn't have been sufficient, because we changed feed and the system of training. Big Rock is a champion and he has the mind of a champion.

Harry Eustace, trainer of Docklands
As everyone knows the straight course at Ascot appears to suit him particularly well and he seems in good form with himself. Quick ground and a relatively big field returns him to the conditions he had in the Britannia last year, which he hasn't had since. On the numbers it's a bit of a throw at the stumps, but if there's a year where this division is breaking up a bit then this might be the one to have a go in.

Nemone Routh, racing manager in France to the Aga Khan, owner of Dolayli
We were very happy with him last Tuesday when he worked seven furlongs on the straight Reservoirs gallop. He changed legs when he should and breathed fine. He was very relaxed and he just looks great at the moment. We started him off early this year and those early runs were very eyecatching, with great sectionals, which made us think we had a Group horse. He's bred to be that good and he's a standout individual.

Jerome Reynier, trainer of Facteur Cheval
I like coming back to the mile over the straight track because he has more stamina than just a miler and I think he fits in well. It took him a long time to understand what was required of him when he was younger but now he's in the shape of his life and I couldn't be happier with him. In Dubai nobody wanted to know about Facteur Cheval and people said the trip was too long and the ground too firm, but he showed he's one of the best horses in the world on turf.

Adam Ryan, assistant to Kevin Ryan, trainer of Hi Royal
We're happy with him heading into the race and on his best form he would have a good chance. Hopefully the new headgear can just help bring him back to the form he showed in his two Guineas runs, and if it does we are hopeful of him running well.

Tom Marquand, rider of Maljoom
He looks fantastic and it's a perfect scenario for him. We know he has it in him, and it's a race we get the odd shock in.

Richard Hannon, trainer of Witch Hunter
He likes it around Ascot and has posted two solid efforts behind Charyn and Audience already this season. There is likely to be a very strong pace, which will really help, and he'll be there to pick up the pieces.
Reporting by Peter Scargill

Read our previews for day one of Royal Ascot:

3.05 Ascot: Aidan O'Brien takes on Wathnan trio in attempt to land record-extending 11th Coventry Stakes

3.45 Ascot: 'I'm pleased they missed the rain' - can Big Evs pass 'toughest' test in King Charles III Stakes?

4.25 Ascot: 'I've never ridden one who can do what he can do' - William Buick talks up Notable Speech ahead of clash of Guineas winners

5.05 Ascot: 'The trainer knows what he's doing' - Ryan Moore teams up with Willie Mullins looking for their fourth Ascot Stakes win

5.40 Ascot: 'It's one of the hottest Listed races of the year' - stablemates Israr and Torito clash in Wolferton

6.15 Ascot: 'He’ll line up with a good favourite’s chance' - analysis and quotes for the Copper Horse Handicap