An unusual tactic may pay off for this trainer chasing more Welsh Grand National glory

This is unlikely to be one of those Welsh Nationals where you watch through the gaps in your fingers. Last year was like that. Nassalam won by 34 lengths because he was the only horse travelling forwards for much of Chepstow's straight.

The GoingStick reading is around a point higher this time, and higher still than when the course tends to report borderline unraceable conditions. So, although we will be spared a quagmire, the essential character of this winter highlight will be retained. There will be mud. 

We tend to focus on conditions in the Welsh National, because in years like 2023 it can be pivotal to the race. There are other, more fixed factors that should not be overlooked either. Chepstow can be a track for specialists. It has five fences along a finishing straight which is all downhill. Both of those, plus the tendency towards soft ground, manifest in a strong bias towards front-runners.