'All winter he’s been the one we hoped would be top of the tree' - who rates his Norfolk runner so highly?

We’ve become accustomed to seeing Aidan O’Brien dominate the juvenile races at Royal Ascot, but Karl Burke is an increasingly emerging force and last season he saddled Dramatised to land the Queen Mary and Holloway Boy to spring a Chesham surprise.

Beautiful Diamond did best of his three runners in the Queen Mary yesterday, finishing third behind Crimson Advocate, but the Middleham trainer will be hoping he can go two better with the highest-rated juvenile to compete at the meeting this year in Elite Status. He achieved a Racing Post Rating of 108 when winning the National Stakes by five lengths at Sandown.

That makes him the highest-rated juvenile to run at the royal meeting this decade and one of only four horses to have achieved an RPR higher than 105 last time out to compete at Ascot.

Blackbeard had run to 107 before finishing fourth in the Coventry last year, but Little Big Bear did do the business in the Windsor Castle. He had achieved 106 on his previous start.

This season’s Coventry Stakes must have been a strong running as the other two horses to have achieved an RPR higher than 105 both competed in that race. The winner River Tiber was one of them having run to 107 previously, while Asadna (106) finished ninth behind him.

Elite Status evidently sets a high standard for any year, not just this one, and he doesn’t even need to improve as the average winning RPR in this in the last ten years is 106. He’s already 2lb higher than that and 108 would have been enough to win nine of the last ten runnings.

Ryan Moore rode River Tiber to win the Coventry and is off to a flying start by his standards. He has averaged just 1.7 wins on the first two days in the last ten years, but is already well past that and usually gets better as the week goes on. He averages 3.8 winners over the last three days in that same time and rides His Majesty in a bid for a third win in this since 2015. 

His Majesty has a very similar profile to Moore’s other two winners of the race in that time. 

Both Waterloo Bridge (2014) and Sioux Nation (2017) went into the contest with a defeat on their records and Sioux Nation had taken sixth in the Marble Hill at the Curragh before his victory. His Majesty finished third in that race last time and aims to make a similar jump up.

Joel Rosario has also ridden two winners in the last ten years, both for Wesley Ward, and they team up with wide-margin Keeneland winner American Rascal. The form of that race is hard to weigh up, but the pedigree isn’t. He is by Curlin out of Lady Aurelia, who landed the 2016 Queen Mary for Ward and Frankie Dettori, who is booked on the other American horse here.

Dettori is four wins from 13 runners for Ward and his good record on American runners clearly got the attention of George Weaver, who is bidding to make it two Royal Ascot wins in as many days after Crimson Advocate's victory in the Queen Mary.

Weaver trains the easy Gulfstream Park winner No Nay Mets and his sire No Nay Never was one of Ward’s winners of this in 2013.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

'He's a special colt' 

American Rascal was a talking horse even before he made his debut, the Curlin colt being bred from racing royalty. And victory by ten and a quarter lengths on dirt at Keeneland did little to dampen his supporters' enthusiasm.

"He's a special colt being out of a great mare in Lady Aurelia," said trainer Wesley Ward. "She did so much for me and everyone involved with her, including Frankie [Dettori] and the owner Barbara Banke. It’s exciting to be training this guy and to have him win in such impressive fashion. 

"Coming over, he’s done everything we’ve asked and now we’ve got to go and do it." 

American Rascal: made a huge impression when winning on debutCredit: Stonestreet

While Dettori enjoyed some great days with Lady Aurelia, Ward had no hesitation in calling up Joel Rosario, who won the Norfolk on both No Nay Never and Shang Shang Shang for him.

"I’ve had a lot of success here with Johnny V [Velazquez] as well, but Joel is a jockey that can come to Europe and fit right in," said Ward. "He’s the most patient rider we have in America. His style of riding is to break, take a hold and then come with a run. 

"Although he’s very fast, this colt ran over four and a half furlongs and Joel broke in front and then let the other horse go on, then angled out and away he went. Frankie is the greatest but Joel knows the horse and, prior to the horse making his debut, he drove two hours multiple times to breeze the horse." 

'He looks magnificent'

The strength of Karl Burke's team of juveniles has been one of the most dominant themes coming into the meeting and none is more eagerly anticipated than Elite Status, who waltzed away with the National Stakes at Sandown by five lengths and whose winning time of 1m 00.48s has been bettered only once this century – by Elite Status's sire Havana Grey, who Burke also trained and went on to win at Group 1 level.

Karl Burke: "It’s been a very straightforward prep" for Elite StatusCredit: Edward Whitaker

"We’ve been very happy with him," said Burke. "We’ve had no issues and it’s been a very straightforward prep. He looks magnificent and I think this track will play to his strengths even more than Sandown. 

"All winter he’s been the one we hoped would be top of the tree among the early ones, but I think he’s a bit more than that."

What they say

Donnacha O'Brien, trainer of Devious
He's always worked like a classy, fast horse. I thought his win at Naas was a very good performance. He's a monster to look at, probably the biggest two-year-old we have in the yard, so it looks like he's going to progress as the season goes on.

Aidan O'Brien, trainer of His Majesty
He won nicely first time out at the Curragh and wasn't beaten far in the Marble Hill next time. He showed plenty of speed there and has been in good form since.  

His Majesty comes good late on to win at the CurraghCredit: Patrick McCann

Tim Palin, manager of Middleham Park Racing, owners of Malc
Five furlongs in a reasonably slowly run race wasn’t really ideal for him first time, even though he won. I think he’s going to get six furlongs one day but the end-to-end gallop should suit him. It’s a big step up in class but very often these juvenile races can go to once-raced horses that are 10-15lb ahead of their initial performance. We’re a candidate for that, though it’s a fiercely competitive race with some proven horses in there. If he improves a wee bit from his debut, then we could be in the mix.

Adam Ryan, assistant to Kevin Ryan, trainer of Mon Na Slieve
He was a breeze-up buy and bought for this job. He was very impressive and professional at York and we've been working back from Ascot since. It's a big step up in grade but, if he improves on what he's done, I think he'll go well.

Paddy Twomey, trainer of Noche Magica
He's in good form and he's travelled over great. I think he's come on again from his run in the Marble Hill, so we're looking forward to it.

Blair Golen, assistant to George Weaver, trainer of No Nay Mets
We have come here to win. In American racing, there is very rarely a big field, so that is a big challenge. Luckily, we have Frankie Dettori riding him, and if anybody knows how to ride the course, it is definitely him. So I think that is to our advantage. It means everything to have him riding and, if that makes Wesley Ward jealous, then even better!

No Nay Mets during exercise in Newmarket Credit: Edward Whitaker

Francis Graffard, trainer of The Fixer
The idea has always been to run him in the Norfolk Stakes and there aren’t that many alternatives over this trip. It’s a very high-class race but he's well. He had some excuses at Longchamp, when he sat down in the stalls, and so I stuck with my original programme. Winning the Prix la Fleche was reassuring. I trained the dam and his brother, and he seems to me the best yet from that family because he has a great mind and everything comes to him very naturally.  

Brian Meehan, trainer of Toca Madera
He’s a very nice horse and we’re very pleased with him. He probably doesn’t want it too fast, so a little rain would help. He’s a fine big horse, he’s working well and I’m excited to run him.

Dominic Ffrench Davis, trainer of Thunder Blue
He’s continued to improve, has bags of speed and I think he’ll put up a very good show. I’m very happy we decided to run him over five furlongs rather than six, as you have to see it out well at Ascot.
Reporting by Scott Burton

Read more of Thursday's previews:

'We pencilled him in for this straight after his win' - powerhouse trainers take aim at King George V Stakes 

Hot Ribblesdale favourite Al Asifah 'could be anything' as she bids to cement growing reputation 

'We've talked about this for a year' - key trainer quotes for a wide-open Gold Cup 

'I'm very hot on him' - expert analysis and trainer insight for 30-runner Britannia 

'He’s a proper horse' - who is looking forward to his runner stepping up in trip? 

'I just hope for a bit of luck' - how will the draw impact this year's Buckingham Palace? 

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