A polarising favourite against a Dettori-ridden Group 1 winner - how do Jumbly and Prosperous Voyage match up?

Perhaps the most polarising favourite of the week is Jumbly. A logical question is this: why is the seventh-highest-rated filly in the Duke of Cambridge a shorter price than an unpenalised Frankie Dettori-ridden Group 1 winner like Prosperous Voyage?

Jumbly changed hands for a startling 1,250,000gns last year, with her standout achievement a Group 3 defeat of Oscula on the round mile at Ascot by a nose for Harry and Roger Charlton in July. That form is below the level required to land a Duke of Cambridge, yet her seasonal return and stable debut for Joseph O’Brien proved she can cut it at this level.

The daughter of Gleneagles stayed on for second having been held up in a slowly run Lanwades Stud Stakes at the Curragh, a race in which the front-running race-fit winner barely saw another rival and the following three fillies raced prominently.

Punters need only look down this very racecard to find an example of O'Brien's prowess with new recruits. Honey Girl was 0-8 for Henry de Bromhead but easily obliged on her first two starts for O'Brien, the latter in impressive fashion when sauntering home in the Athasi Stakes.

The 111 Racing Post Rating Jumbly recorded in the Lanwades Stud also superseded Prosperous Voyage's recent Princess Elizabeth triumph by 4lb. It is worth questioning whether Prosperous Voyage is flattered by her BHA rating as she encountered a clearly misfiring 1-7 favourite Inspiral when registering her top-level success in the Falmouth.

Fast ground is deemed a necessity for Prosperous Voyage and how the track rides will be crucial to her chances at the scene of one of her lesser efforts – she could manage only tenth of 12 in the Coronation a year ago. There are also grounds to suggest course-and-distance winner Random Harvest is overpriced in relation to Prosperous Voyage as she opposes off 3lb better terms for a three-quarter-length defeat at Epsom.

Prosperous Voyage: Group 1 winner when defeating Inspiral at Newmarket

Al Asifah was the supplementary story of the week in Thursday's Ribblesdale and the late inclusion of Rogue Millennium in the Duke of Cambridge might have escaped the attention of some. An usually late recruit to the mile division, Rogue Millennium was fast-tracked to the Oaks after making a winning debut just 40 days earlier, capturing the fillies' Classic trial at Lingfield between those runs.

The daughter of Dubawi, the dominant sire at Ascot, was a non-staying seventh in the Classic and might just find her sweet spot over a stiff, straight mile. Free Wind, who features prominently in Saturday's Hardwicke betting, had to survive a stewards' inquiry to wrestle York's Middleton Stakes off Rogue Millennium in May, and she is likely to be underestimated due to her connections.

Tom Clover moved quickly to snap up the services of Danny Tudhope and few ride Ascot better than the top jockey – 47 of Tudhope's 128 rides (37 per cent) over the past five years at the Berkshire track finished in the first four, an impressive feat considering the breadth of competition associated with races here. Backing Tudhope blindly to £1 win stakes in that period unearthed a £48 profit.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

Jumbly heads O'Brien challenge

Joseph O'Brien bids to go where even his father Aidan has so far failed as he attempts to add the family name to the roll of honour for the Duke of Cambridge Stakes for the first time with Jumbly. 

Owned by Doreen Tabor, Jumbly made a cool 1,250,000gns at the sales in November and produced a pleasing start for her new connections when second in the Group 2 Lanwades Stud Stakes last month on her debut for O'Brien.

A winner at Group 3 level at Ascot when trained by Roger and Harry Charlton, she has already shown an affinity for the course, albeit that was on Ascot's round mile and she will be tackling the straight mile for the first time. 

Joseph O'Brien: trainer of JumblyCredit: Edward Whitaker

"I was very pleased with the way Jumbly ran at the Curragh," said O'Brien. "It was her first run for us and she was back from a break too, so we were delighted with how she performed. The Duke of Cambridge has been her aim all along. She'll like the ground if it stays on the quick side."

O'Brien also runs Honey Girl, a Group 3 scorer at the Curragh last month and fifth when favourite for the Lanwades Stud Stakes.

The trainer added: "Honey Girl is a nice filly who has done really well this season. If she returns to the form of her Athasi win, she should go very well." 

Rogue Millennium getting sharper

Nothing speaks louder of a trainer's confidence than a supplementary entry and Tom Clover is hoping the £13,125 it cost to add Rogue Millennium to the Duke of Cambridge Stakes will be money well spent. 

Winner of the Lingfield Oaks trial last season, she put in a career-best effort when runner-up in the Group 2 Middleton Stakes at York on her latest run and drops back in trip to run at a mile for the first time in her career.

Rogue Millennium (left) just denied by Free Wind in the Middleton StakesCredit: Mark Cranham

"She's been getting quicker in her homework and really sharpening up, so a stiff mile at Ascot could really suit her," said Clover, who trains Rogue Millennium for the Rogues Gallery syndicate. 

"Every time she's hit the front over ten furlongs she hasn't stayed there for long and the one thing she does is travel strongly behind horses. Her form is stacking up well and, while it will take some winning, we go there with a good chance."  

What they say

Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Grand Dame
She progressed well last year to be third in the Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket. She has taken her time to come to hand this year as often happens with fillies in the spring. She has pleased in her work and won't mind the rain that has fallen, however it's a very strong renewal of the race.

Ralph Beckett, trainer of Prosperous Voyage
A straight track suits her really well and she goes there in great shape. I think her price reflects her chance. She's challenging for favouritism and I think that's about right.

William Haggas, trainer of Queen Aminatu
She's never won on turf but they always tell me the Ascot straight track is good for all-weather performers. We'll see how she goes, but I think she'll run a good race.

Ed Walker, trainer of Random Harvest
I think Jumbly and Prosperous Voyage are going to be hard to beat but she could easily be third and it doesn't take a whole lot of luck to be a bit closer. She got better and better with racing last year and it takes a run or two to switch her on. I wouldn't be surprised if she improved again after Epsom and if she does I think she'll be bang there.
Reporting by Lewis Porteous

Read more of Wednesday's previews:

'She's improving all the time' - leading juvenile fillies clash in wide-open Queen Mary 

'Hopefully she can be seriously involved' - Joseph O'Brien teams up with Aussie ace McDonald 

Race to savour: big guns ready to rumble in mouthwatering Prince of Wales's 

Ante-post gamble Perotto 'has great credentials' - but who else has been laid out for the Royal Hunt Cup? 

'I think he'll run a very big race' - expert analysis and trainer quotes for the Windsor Castle 

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