Simon Giles: Maintaining intensity is crucial for mid-table improvers

It has been an unpredictable start to the Premier League season. Manchester City's trials and tribulations have understandably gathered the most headlines but several other notable performances, and underperformances, deserve to be highlighted.

City occupy fourth place and, as the accompanying graph shows, the gap between fourth – traditionally the final Champions League qualifying spot – and tenth, the bottom of the top half, is significantly tighter than usual at the 15-game mark.

This season, the gap is just four points, having been double-digits in six of the last eight campaigns, with an average of 9.6 points since the start of the Pep Guardiola era in 2016-17.

Tottenham, Newcastle and Manchester United have all played Champions League football in the past few seasons, but all three find themselves in the bottom half.

It may be a short-term quirk, but every season is unique, as the relative balance of strength throughout the division continually shifts.

It is worth considering that the riches of the most recent TV deal have boosted the traditional mid-table clubs, giving them the resources to attract playing and coaching talent from Europe of a quality that they perhaps could not previously.

They appear to have strengthened to an extent that makes them a more consistent thorn in the side of the teams competing in Europe. The traditional mid-table teams can play at an intensity that those sides who are trying to navigate one of the most congested fixture lists ever cannot always maintain.

The increased competitiveness means 12 Premier League sides have accrued 20 points or more from their opening 15 fixtures. That compares to an average of 9.5 and is tied with 2020-21 as the joint-highest number in our sample.

Four teams who were projected to finish in the bottom half, based on pre-season odds, are in the top half, which is the most there has been at this stage of a season since 2016-17. The big question, then, is can they stay there?

If there is one team who thrive through their intensity then it is surely Bournemouth who, according to Opta, rank second for pressures applied and first for possession won in the final third.

The Cherries are aggressive, but under Andoni Iraola, they have one of the best out-of-possession set-ups in the league, and, as the graph below shows, their underlying data is even more impressive than their league position of eighth.

Bournemouth created chances worth two or more expected goals in eight of their 15 games, a tally that only Liverpool and Manchester City can match, and wastefulness in front of goal has arguably cost them even more points.

They have been awarded five penalties, two more than any other side, and have benefited from opposition red cards in two matches. However, eclipsing last season's club-record points total of 48 and a possible tilt at European qualification are not unrealistic hopes based on their early-season performances.

Nottingham Forest occupy a European spot after their 3-2 win at Old Trafford last weekend propelled them to fifth, a remarkable achievement for a side who were priced up as fourth-favourites for relegation ante-post.

Aston Villa, in 2020-21, perhaps provide a useful comparison for Forest as they defied similarly gloomy pre-season expectations to sit sixth after 15 games before finishing 11th.

Forest's scattergun transfer policy arguably held them back in previous seasons, but that investment is now paying dividends, with a strong defence and pacy wingers perfect for manager Nuno Espirito Santo's well-organised mid-block and counter-attacking tactics.

They have scored the opening goal in 12 of their 15 games, the highest ratio in the division, and that has helped them to set up to concede territory rather than big chances.

Forest have the third-best defensive stats, but only four sides have scored fewer goals than them from open play, so the fine margins have generally gone their way.  It will be interesting to see how they fare if variance swings at some point and they have to force the issue more often.

Even if fifth is slightly flattering for Nuno's men, the fact that they are now even-money for a top-half finish is a testament to their progress. They had been 8-1 in that market pre-season – the same price some bookmakers had them to finish bottom.

Fulham are only a few places below the Tricky Trees in the defensive metrics, which not many people predicted following the summer sale of Joao Palhinha to Bayern Munich.

Nottingham Forest have been flying in the Premier League this seasonCredit: NurPhoto

The Cottagers spent that money well and are conceding 1.33 goals per game, down from 1.6 last season.

That resilience will be tested with visits to Liverpool and Chelsea in the next few weeks but Fulham drew with Arsenal and Spurs, also causing Manchester City plenty of problems at the Etihad Stadium, to prove that they can land a blow on the traditional big guns.

Ninth-placed Brentford have also excelled despite selling one of their biggest names, striker Ivan Toney. Only Sunday's opponents, Chelsea, have scored more goals than their tally of 31, with Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa claiming nine goals apiece.

The Bees have comfortably the league's best conversion rate, which may regress, although they do tilt things in their favour by taking their shots from the best locations, as measured by average shot quality.

They have the best home record and joint-worst away record, although that is explained to a large extent by a skewed fixture list, which has seen them play seven of the bottom nine at home.

Brentford face a tough run of fixtures over the next month, although the festive schedule is busy for every club. That, in turn, may mean that the rest and preparation advantage which the impressive mid-table teams have enjoyed, compared to clubs involved in European competitions, will be nullified.

The sides highlighted will also hope that the schedule doesn't alter their good fortune with injury. According to the website Premierinjuries.com, only one team has suffered fewer player injuries than Nottingham Forest while Brentford have had the third-fewest and Bournemouth and Fulham the joint-fifth fewest.

Brighton will be glad they spent big in the summer to bolster their squad as they have had the joint-most injuries, which makes their position as genuine European contenders in seventh all the more meritorious.

They have taken several notable scalps, although their ultra-aggressiveness has perhaps cost them a couple of times against sides lower down the table, as they have blown leads against Leicester, Wolves and Southampton.

The strengthening of the mid-table has also arguably made it tougher for the promoted sides to bridge the gap between the Championship and Premier League.

Southampton, Ipswich, and Leicester, along with a couple of clubs whose transfer money has dried up or been spent less wisely in recent windows, are currently in a group threatening to become detached at the bottom.

And, while teams at the top and in the middle of the table taking points off each other more regularly is exciting, it does mean that Manchester United, Tottenham and Newcastle are still only six points from fifth, and the likely extra Champions League spot.

The margins are tremendously tight and, from a neutral point of view, long may that continue.

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