'She never gave up when she had every right to' - Tom Segal with his takeaways from Classic weekend at Epsom
There are always three interesting phases to the Classics at Epsom. Trying to work out which horses will take a big leap forward is the focus in the lead-up, then come the races, and afterwards we dissect what happened.
We are into phase three now and the obvious place to start is with Derby winner Auguste Rodin, who I thought won with a load in hand and might actually be the horse Aidan O'Brien always said he was going to be. At the moment it's hard to tell how high he can go and he has bigger tests to come, but I would imagine he won't be going anywhere near the St Leger and it will be races like the Irish Champion and Arc that are on his agenda in the autumn.
I think he would beat King Of Steel by a lot further next time as I thought the runner-up got the perfect ground-saving ride. Yes, the Roger Varian-trained colt can take a step forward too, but most of the Classic winners from Ballydoyle seem to get better as the season progresses and I doubt very much if we saw the absolute best Auguste Rodin can be at Epsom.
Those in the backwash included The Foxes, who missed the start, got too far back and didn't seem to stay the trip. He looks a perfect candidate for the Eclipse.
As for the Leger horses. I think you have to start with White Birch but I felt he picked up the pieces late on and I would be much more interested in Arrest bouncing back or Artistic Star taking a big leap forward. The latter had only just passed his third birthday before the Derby and still looked a bit raw but he stayed on nicely and could be a force at Doncaster, while I certainly wouldn't be giving up on Arrest, who is miles better than he showed.
All at sea on the track, Arrest could never use his stride and it certainly wouldn't surprise me if he went to Royal Ascot for the King Edward VII rather than take on Auguste Rodin at the Curragh.
However, the horse that I backed for the final Classic didn't run in the Derby but in the Oaks, where I don't think we saw the real Savethelastdance.
She didn't look happy at any stage in Friday's race. Whether it was the ground or the track that affected her, what I liked about her performance is that she never gave up when she had every right to.
I reckon she's going to be in her element when she goes up again in trip on a more conventional track. That's why I reckon she's a decent bet at 14-1 for the Leger, especially as it doesn't look like the Ballydoyle team have too many other options for Doncaster if, as expected, Auguste Rodin goes down a different path.
Jumbly lovely for Duke of Cambridge
There are some races at Royal Ascot later in the month that look a no-no as far as ante-post betting is concerned and then there is the Duke of Cambridge Stakes.
John Gosden has already stated that the current favourite, Inspiral, is going for the Group 1 Queen Anne instead and I would be staggered if Joseph O'Brien ran Above The Curve back in trip and in class under a penalty. She's second favourite and then comes Laurel, who ran as if there was something amiss when disappointing in the Lockinge.
Consequently this looks a race that will have a totally different market on the day, and I'm looking at last month's Lanwades Stud Stakes at the Curragh as a form pointer.
While Just Beautiful looked good in victory, she had a massive advantage in making the running on a track that played in her favour. It's hard to do what she did there at Ascot and surely the one to consider backing is runner-up Jumbly.
We know Jumbly likes Ascot, we know she likes a straight track and the Duke of Cambridge has been her target all season. I reckon she's going to take a massive step forward and her current odds seriously underestimate her chance of winning.
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Published on inTom Segal
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