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The novice chase system shortchanges punters - here's how to redress the balance

Keith Melrose analyses the data of horses who go straight into handicap chases

Sophie Olivia: one of three chasing debutant winners in handicaps for Martin Todhunter over the last five seasons
Sophie Olivia: one of three chasing debutant winners in handicaps for Martin Todhunter over the last five seasonsCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

When people are asked for the reasons why they prefer betting on the Flat over jumps, one of the most common answers is the uncertainty presented by taking hurdles or fences at race speed. You do not hear the inverse argument so often. The act of jumping over obstacles that vary in shape, size and approach, is one of the best ways for punters to gain an edge.

On the Flat, it can be more difficult to gauge by eye the pace at which a race is run. Cracking that particular aspect of race-reading is key on the Flat, which is why the likes of sectional timing makes more appeal to followers of that code.

Over jumps, where it is generally easier to spot a pace collapse or a dawdle to two out, how horses take the obstacles becomes the single most important part of qualitative analysis.

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