The Grand National used to be my favourite race by some way - but it's a lottery now

There was a time when I would be disappointed if I didn't back the Grand National winner. It suited the way I thought about racing and nearly always went to a classy horse who was unexposed over the marathon trip but had the running style and pedigree that suggested the distance wasn't going to be a problem. It was my favourite race by miles every year.

It wasn't just me, either, because in the 20 years from when West Tip won in 1986 to when Numbersixvalverde scampered home in 2006 the average winning price was about 16-1. Since then the fences have been made smaller and the handicapper has had his say, and the average SP is 29-1, which includes the two years when Tiger Roll won at 10-1 and 4-1. The race that was described as a lottery when I was growing up never really was, but it is now and I have to admit it has me totally confused.

Every race I have a bet in, I go back over after the event to see where I went wrong and try to work out what I can learn from it but I have to admit the National has me stumped. I simply don't have the foggiest idea what is required to win the race any more and while it won't stop me trying, I have no confidence whatsoever in ever finding the winner ever again.

To start with, it seems to me that the ability to jump is of no importance whatsoever. That my sound ridiculous in a marathon chase over those unique fences but if you get over the first three hardly any horses seem to fall anymore. For example, not a single horse has come down at Becher's in the last three runnings of the race and while that is obviously a good thing, it does suggest that factoring in jumping ability is nothing like as important as it was, if it's relevant at all. 

For that reason, I think it's impossible to rule out Vanillier this year because he is handicapped to win. I would have given him absolutely no chance back when I was growing up; in fact he wouldn't have had a prayer of getting round but who knows these days.

Then there's experience. In recent years we've twice seen novices win the race. Now, I'm one of those who have always felt if you're good enough it doesn't matter what age you are, but the National used to go to horses who had previously run well in a National of some description or a class race like the Gold Cup. Nowadays winners can come from anywhere and in any sort of form, as we saw with Noble Yeats 12 months ago. Can you really rule out Capodanno on that score these days? Of course you can't.

Back in the old days, the ideal National ride was normally one whereby you made sure you got round on the first circuit and then rode a race on the second. Now it doesn't make any difference, horses win from the front, they come from the back, they make mistakes and they might not have any recent form. What I'm trying to say is I have no way in to a modern National. I have no short cuts like I would do in nearly every other race in the calendar and, as a result, it's holds nothing like the same fascination as it used to.

Douglas Talking: handicapped to go close in the Red Rum Handicap Chase at Aintree this week Credit: Mark Cranham

Take note of Hullnback and Douglas this week

While it's pretty obvious I'm lukewarm about the National itself, I do love the rest of the Aintree meeting and as usual I will be concentrating on horses who missed Cheltenham. 

Two who I earmarked as the right types for the meeting some time ago are among the entries this week and hopefully we will get to see Douglas Talking in the Red Rum Handicap Chase and Hullnback in one of the Grade 1 novice hurdles.

Given the Irish dominance in the novice hurdles at Cheltenham it seems strange to suggest that Hullnback is one of the horses I'm most looking forward to this week but he was so impressive at Warwick last time that I think he might be the best novice hurdler at around 2m in Britain.

Fergal O'Brien has him in both novice hurdles and I don't see 2m4f being a problem, but the race over 2m on Friday looks pretty weak because the Irish aren't heavily represented and Inthepocket will surely be seen to better effect over further. If Hullnback lines up in that race, he is well worth considering.

Douglas Talking jumped superbly when winning at Sandown last time and while I'm not sure he would want the ground to dry up too much, if the word soft is in the going description, he is handicapped to go close in the Red Rum. There aren't many horses who jump as well as he does and while that might not matter too much over the National fences these days, I think it's vital on the Mildmay course.

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Experience is not as crucial in the National these days - here are my two fancies for the big race  

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