Plenty to give racing's leadership sleepless nights - and affordability checks are top of the list

"Just because you're paranoid," Joseph Heller wrote in Catch-22, "doesn't mean they aren't after you."

The thing is, when the threats to British racing are set out as they are in the BHA's annual report, they do not look like the product of irrational fears.

Instead they appear to be a realistic assessment of the treacherous landscape the sport faces.

The report sets out a number of principal risks and uncertainties facing both the governing body and the areas of the industry where it has leadership and sets out how they are being tackled.

For example, when it comes to the risk of a contraction caused by the economy and cost of living crisis the BHA says the industry strategy will try to find a way to ensure any squeeze is at worst "short and shallow".

The governing body warns that attendances last year had shrunk and in addition a "general lack of modernisation" means "engagement with those under 40 is at lower levels than would be ideal for the long term health of the sport". 

The report also acknowledges the threat of environmental issues damaging the industry, claiming the impact of climate change on racing "has become much more prevalent in the last 12 months". It adds an initial assessment of the sport’s progress on environmental sustainability had been completed to help the sport's long-term planning.

Such concerns link to another "key" risk, that of an outbreak of equine disease hitting animal movement or leading to the suspension of racing. The danger of diseases carried by midges and mosquitoes was raised, a risk that has increased as warmer wetter summers lead to the spread of such species further north.

The report raises the prospect of major investors being lost to the sport, whose departure could lead to a "significant downturn in horses and investment". It also highlights that a decline in the international competitiveness of British racing could reduce "the quality and appeal of the sport to investors, participants and customers".

This is where the industry strategy comes in again, with the BHA saying the creation of a "premier tier" of fixtures with "an increased share of funding" and higher, more internationally competitive minimum values from 2024 is a key element of that work. Whether others in the sport agree, either with the concept or its implementation, is another question.

Animal Rising: "has brought the subject of racehorse welfare to the wider media"

In a year when the activities of Animal Rising have, like it or not, brought the subject of racehorse welfare to the wider media, the BHA lists public engagement being damaged as a result of such issues "real or perceived", as another threat to the sport.

The governing body believes the overall risk to racing's social licence should reduce as action is taken but, rather enigmatically, refers to some recent changes having "taken time to embed fully". A tacit acknowledgement of the difficulties surrounding the whip rules perhaps.

The report adds: "Continued reference to aftercare, traceability and what happens to horses who do not make the track remain as potential issues which could impact social licence at some point in the future if not properly addressed."

Another risk, and one that also has implications for equine welfare, is that of insufficient staffing leading to declining standards. The report mentions the Industry People Board that has been created as part of the sport's new governance structure but notes that "there remains the longer term possibility of insufficient staff to support the horse population".

There would be some who argue that is the case already.

All of those potential risks and threats would be enough to cause those running British racing plenty of sleepless nights. However, there is more.

The largest section of this part of the accounts deals with the regulatory changes stemming from the government's gambling review and their potential impact on betting on racing and therefore the sport's income.

It is not all bad news. The report says the government's white paper "acknowledges throughout" the economic importance of the British racing industry, its interdependence with betting and the potential economic consequences of regulatory changes being proposed, such as affordability checks.

It does, though, recognise the threat from the ongoing Gambling Commission consultation on affordability checks.

"The nature and friction of these checks could have a material impact on betting activity on British racing, in addition to measures which have already been introduced/required of operators," the report says.

British racing, led by the BHA, "will continue to engage in detail in these consultation processes and with parliamentarians," it adds.

BHA chief executive Julie Harrington said last week that the sport's leadership had been making clear for some time its concerns about the potential consequences of the gambling review to both the Department for Culture, Media and Sport and the Gambling Commission.

Harrington said that both were "listening" having received evidence of the impact that affordability checks are already having on racing and those who bet on it.

The government has also repeatedly said that the white paper's impact on racing would be minimal.

However, while the government and others may say they aren't after you, it does not make you paranoid to fear the worst could happen anyway.

This column is exclusive to Members' Club Ultimate subscribers. Read more Members' Club content here:

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The Front Runner is our unmissable email newsletter available exclusively to Members' Club Ultimate subscribers. Chris Cook, a four-time Racing Reporter of the Year award winner, provides his take on the day's biggest stories and tips for the upcoming racing every morning from Monday to Friday. Not a Members' Club Ultimate subscriber? Click here to join today and also receive our Ultimate Daily emails plus our full range of fantastic website and newspaper content.