Make no mistake, City Of Troy may be a short-priced favourite but the odds are stacked against him in Breeders' Cup Classic

Will it be 18th time lucky for Ballydoyle in the Breeders' Cup Classic? Because however the cards are dealt, Lady Luck must smile on City Of Troy if he is to win the $7 million showpiece on Saturday.

There are so many imponderables when top-class horses make their debut on dirt, as City Of Troy will do at Del Mar. After 40 years of the Breeders' Cup we have become familiar with the pitfalls, but the odds of him winning are way longer than those advanced by British bookmakers.

Some firms quote City Of Troy as short as 6-4, which says more about the weight of expectation than anything else. We don't even know whether he is the most talented horse in the race. There are no direct formlines linking horses on either side of the Atlantic, never mind those of the strong Japanese contingent.