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Jumping's back - here are a few pointers for Chepstow's Silver Trophy meeting
Chepstow's Silver Trophy meeting is one of my favourites as it signals the return of jump racing proper.
It was this time a few years ago when I managed to snaffle 16-1 about Imperial Aura in the feature race (sent off the 5-1 favourite, did far too much in front, finished third), and while I can't promise a similar wager this time around I always think it's a fixture to keep a close eye on.
However, it is very difficult to officially tip given the two-day meeting starts on Friday and I am writing this on a Monday, but I've come across a few things I'd like to share.
I'm not keen on First Street and Paso Doble, the top two in the market for Friday's Unibet Persian War Novices' Hurdle (2.45), as I think they're priced on potential rather than form.
One race I think could hold the key to this is the 2m3½f maiden hurdle at Doncaster in January won by Sam Barton, who will be towards the top of all of my horses-to-follow lists this season.
Kim Bailey's dour stayer The Edgar Wallace finished second and he went on to win at Uttoxeter where he beat Onagatheringstorm, who has since won his last two.
The Edgar Wallace will no doubt be ridden aggressively by David Bass if running in the Persian War, which is no bad thing considering he can lack a gear or two. The forecast for Chepstow is mixed but if they get plenty of rain he'd be the one I’d want to be on, and 12-1 is definitely a few points too big.
If the ground doesn't turn out to be too bad then it might be better to side with Up For Parol, who was back in fourth in Sam Barton's Doncaster race. He looked the best horse in the race for most of the journey and is another who went on to win his next two outings when dropped back to two miles on better ground, shaping like a slightly speedier type. At 10-1, he's still a decent price.
On Saturday, Allmankind will be one of the star names when he makes his seasonal reappearance in the 2m handicap hurdle (1.50). He is rated 10lb higher over fences and will clearly be the horse to beat if at his best, but I have a word of warning for anyone considering supporting him.
With Galice Macalo in the field, who was last seen defying a double penalty over the same course and distance in March, he might not get things his own way. The Jane Williams-trained mare is a tearaway herself – and a good one at that – so be mindful if she is declared.
The one to watch in the 2m7½f handicap chase (2.25) is Full Back, who is unexposed over fences and will surely benefit from running at this galloping track.
A rating of 140 won't be easy to overcome against more experienced chasers, but he is pretty relentless when he gets into a rhythm and will receive plenty of weight from some exposed campaigners.
There are fancy names aplenty in the 2m3½f novice chase (3.00), including Bravemansgame for Paul Nicholls, but one horse is bound to be overlooked in the market if she turns up.
Emma Lavelle's likeable mare Jemima P would be a force to be reckoned if the ground isn't too bad.
She has won her last three, putting in some wonderful rounds of jumping, and her latest success earned her a Racing Post Rating of 144. Don't dismiss her as a summer jumper.
This year's Wasdell Group Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle (3.30) is typically tough and if I'm honest only one horse truly captured my attention, and he's a fairly obvious one on paper.
Umbrigado ran a great race off an official mark of 139 on his sole start over hurdles last season, going down narrowly to War Lord in a valuable handicap at Haydock in November. He then switched to fences where he recorded wins at Fontwell, Wetherby and in the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury, before disappointing in the Grade 1 Manifesto Novices' Chase at Aintree in April.
Umbrigado ended last season with a chase rating of 149, but runs here off his hurdles mark of 142 and it is interesting David Pipe has him entered only in this race, which he won in 2009 with Mr Thriller.
He is clearly capable of a big performance off that mark and these conditions should suit him perfectly given we know he handles the hustle and bustle of a big handicap.
Finally, I doubt he'll be up to winning if the majority of his rivals stand their ground in the 2m3½f handicap chase (4.05), but Gary Moore's Larry could be one to watch this season off a much-reduced rating.
He's had his problems, but he ran better than his finishing position suggested in the bet365 Gold Cup when last seen and is now 7lb lower than his last winning mark.
Use tools to your advantage
Paul Nicholls could run two British debutants at Chepstow – Halo Des Obeaux (1.00 Friday) and Magistrato (1.15 Saturday) – and given France is where the champion trainer has sourced so many of his best horses, it could pay to take note.
If you sign up to France Galop you can view the replays of the pair's races for free and make your own mind up, but I'd be more hopeful of Magistrato than Halo Des Obeaux.
The latter didn't set the world on fire in AQPS races on the Flat, and while he made a winning hurdles debut at Auteuil the race fell apart a bit late on with several horses coming down, and only fifth-home Histoire De has won since (admittedly very impressively).
Magistrato was very lit up on his chasing debut, running away with Kevin Nabet in the opening stages, yet still managed to see his race out well enough to finish second.
Imprenable, who finished third, has won his next two, including the Listed Prix des Platanes, so the form stands up.
The winner Porticello is now with Gary Moore and can be backed at 33-1 for the Triumph Hurdle. Shall we?
The jumps season is coming! Pick up your copy of the Big Jump Off, our brand new pullout signalling the start of the 2021-22 National Hunt season. Free in the Racing Post on Monday, October 18, it's got 72 pages of unbeatable content including ante-post tips, guest columnists, divisional analysis and much more
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