Here's why I'll be backing more Brits than Irish at the Cheltenham Festival

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There has been a lot of navel-gazing in British racing since last season's Cheltenham Festival with plenty of reasons put forward for the 23-5 drubbing the Irish gave the home-trained runners, some having some credibility and others being nonsense.

Henrietta Knight was not the first to claim that Irish trainers are simply better at the job than their British counterparts, but if you believe that you have to accept that 30 years ago it was the Irish that were no good – and that would be rubbish too.

Whether prize-money has had an effect or not – which it surely has – the stark truth is the balance of power has shifted to Ireland, and when there are more big owners sending more choicely bred and expensive horses to be trained in Ireland than there are in Britain it stands to reason there's a big chance there will be more really good ones among them. It has become a numbers game, pure and simple.

There will probably never be a more powerful trainer in Britain or Ireland than Willie Mullins, who at the first entry stage for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle tends to enter more horses for that race alone than his British counterpart Paul Nicholls will run at the entire meeting.

Willie Mullins: has unparalleled ammunition for CheltenhamCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

When you've got that many you think are worth entering at Grade 1 level, you've got plenty of ammunition to fire at all the hurdle races, and it's no surprise he has also won all the handicaps there on multiple occasions (but has never won a handicap chase there).

In the last five years alone Mullins has saddled more runners (277) than Nicholls and Nicky Henderson have managed between them – so of course he's going to have more winners.

His strike-rate is a solid 10.8 per cent over the last five seasons, but Henderson's (9.3 per cent) is not to be sniffed at either.

Anyway, as I said, it's a numbers game as much as anything else these days – and the answer, if you're wondering, is ten.

That's how many British-trained winners there are going to be at the festival this year.

That's how many I made it anyway, when asked to put up selections for the Weekender's Ultimate Cheltenham Guide, which comes out on Friday.

I can't say I'm a fan of having to tip a horse for every race that far in advance, and I'm sure to change my mind between now and the start of the festival and, in any case, even if I have a great meeting I'm probably going to be wrong 20 times!

However, I simply don't get the defeatist attitude among some Brits and the confidence among some of the Irish that it will be carnage for the home team again.

Let's not forget that the score just three years ago was 14-14, while it was 17-10 in 2020 (one French winner) and only 11-9 that year going into the final day.

There is going to be plenty to play for, and knowing me I'll end up backing more British horses than Irish ones later this month.

Not because of patriotism or anything like that (patriotism is ludicrous when it comes to parting with cash and the old man was Irish anyway), but simply because a lot of Irish horses are going to look under-priced due to what happened last year and not what they have done on the track this season.

Frero Banbou: one Brit who Paul Kealy will be backing at CheltenhamCredit: Alan Crowhurst

I will back the horse I like at the prices wherever it lives, and my latest fancy is Frero Banbou in the Grand Annual for Venetia Williams.

He may have crept in under the radar for the race after being beaten four lengths by Dolos at Sandown last time, but he put in a massive run there against a race specialist who was rated 161 just over a year ago but had somehow come down to 143 as he took his record to 21121 in that contest.

Take the winner out and Frero Banbou has come from off the pace (the first and third raced in the first three all the way) and won by nearly ten lengths. He'd have got more than 1lb from the handicapper if that was the case, and the chances are this improving seven-year-old is very well treated.

In this week's Weekender

I had an early look at the weekend action and came up with three bets, which you can read here.

Tom Segal explained why Willie Mullins won't be making up his mind until declaration time in his latest column.

Alan King talked readers through his weekend runners and delivered an update on his Cheltenham squad.

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