I need a lie down - my head hurts working out Willie Mullins' running plans for the Cheltenham Festival

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I've spent a large part of the last two weeks working on horse profiles for the Racing Post's Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide and have to say it has been an absolute nightmare trying to work out which horses are going to run where in the novice races.

The dominance of Willie Mullins is certainly good for Willie Mullins, but it makes ante-post betting remarkably tricky for everyone else. He has two horses who are very short prices for four races between them, and nobody can be sure where they are going to run.

Let's take a look at the hurdles first. This is what Mullins still has to choose from.

Supreme: Ballyburn, Mystical Power, Tullyhill, Asian Master, Billericay Dickie, Ile Atlantique, Mistergif, Anotherway, Western Diego, Daddy Long Legs, Gold Dancer, Jimmy Du Seuil, Absurde, Supersundae.

Baring Bingham: Ballyburn, Ile Atlantique, Mystical Power, Readin Tommy Wrong, Billericay Dickie, Predators Gold, Gold Dancer, Daddy Long Legs, Jimmy Du Seuil, Lecky Watson, Mercurey, Mitergif, Asian Master, Dr Eggman, Chapeau De Soleil, O'Moore Park, Spread Boss Ted.

Albert Bartlett: High Class Hero, Dancing City, Readin Tommy Wrong, Lecky Watson, Largy Hill, Chapeau De Soleil, Dr Eggman, Mercurey, O'Moore Park, Spread Boss Ted.

The Supreme and Baring Bingham are the ones that give you nightmares.

The first three mentioned in the Supreme list are the first three in the betting, but they also comprise two of the first three in the Baring Bingham betting, and everything depends on where Ballyburn goes.

You would imagine that Mullins won't let all three run against each other, but that doesn't mean he won't.

We know Tullyhill is going to the Supreme because he doesn't have any other entries, while all the vibes since Ballyburn stormed to a seven-length win from Slade Steel over 2m at Leopardstown suggest that he's going there, too.

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However, when you look at the profiles of him and Mystical Power, he is the one who looks a better fit for the 2m5f race. All of his siblings stayed well, with the best of his full brothers being Noble Endeavour, who ran in the National Hunt Chase as a novice, was third in an Ultima and ran in both the Irish and Aintree Grand Nationals. He's won over 2m4f, and he's already easily had the measure of the horse who heads the market without him.

If Ballyburn runs in the Supreme, Mullins has the first two in the betting for that race at least, but not the favourite for the Baring Bingham.

Ballyburn: where will he head at Cheltenham?Credit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

There's no much doubt that Mystical Power will stay in time, as he's out of the brilliant Annie Power, who nearly won a Stayers' Hurdle two years before her Champion Hurdle success. He has raced very keenly every time he has run, though, and going an extra five furlongs at this stage of his career might not be the right thing to do.

You could argue that given he is the least polished hurdler of the trio, going a slower pace in the Baring Bingham will help his jumping, but there is a big chance that whatever race Ballyburn runs in will feature a small field and lead to a considerably bigger field in the other one (Slade Steel, for instance, is reported as likely to swerve Ballyburn, so could yet switch to the Supreme) and that won't help.

Then we have the possibility that a run for Ballyburn in the Baring Bingham will kick some of his more fancied runners out of that race and into the Albert Bartlett.

My head is already starting to hurt again and we haven't even got to the novice chases. Here's what he has to choose from in those four.

Arkle: Il Etait Temps, Facile Vega, Gaelic Warrior, Hunters Yarn, Blood Destiny, Sharjah.

National Hunt Chase: Embassy Gardens, Nick Rockett, Meetingofthewaters, Minella Cocooner.

Brown Advisory: Fact To File, Embassy Gardens, Nick Rockett, Meetingofthewaters, Minella Cocooner, Gaelic Warrior, Facile Vega.

Turners: Fact To File, Gaelic Warrior, Facile Vega, Il Etait Temps, Blood Destiny, Sharjah.

The big horse here is Fact To File, who finished second in last season's Champion Bumper and swerved a hurdles campaign to go straight over fences. That gives him a similar profile to Florida Pearl, who won the bumper for Mullins in 1997 and the following year's Brown Advisory (Royal & Sun Alliance as it was then) on his first run at three miles.

He is also a hot favourite for the Turners, and when I started on the book I was under the impression he was a near certainty to go there.

The rumour mill has strongly suggested in the past week that the Brown Advisory is the plan, though.

Fact To File: highly rated by Willie MullinsCredit: Patrick McCann

Now I'm about as far from the inner workings of Mullins and JP McManus as you can get while still living on the same planet, so anything I hear will be tenth-hand at best, but it does make sense. With Embassy Gardens looking the first string for the National Hunt Chase, Mullins wouldn't have a realistic contender for the Brown Advisory without Fact To File.

Yet if Fact To File does go there, it is going to have a knock-on effect, not only with Mullins' plans for the other races, but also with those of other trainers.

There are plenty of people, myself included, who have been fancying Grey Dawning for the Brown Advisory, for instance, but if Fact To File comes out of the Turners, there has to be every chance Grey Dawning will then run in the shorter race. Dan Skelton doesn't miss a trick, and he'll be fully aware that Grey Dawning will be a much shorter price for whatever race Fact To File doesn't run in.

Ginny's Destiny currently heads the market without Fact To File, but Grey Dawning was beaten only three-quarters of a length by him in December, probably would have won without a bad mistake two out, and he was conceding 3lb. He could easily end up favourite.

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Mullins could then switch at least one of his major Arkle contenders to the Turners.

To my eyes Il Etait Temps will find two miles at Cheltenham too sharp, as he did in the Supreme over half a furlong longer. He only just got up over 2m1f on sticky ground at Leopardstown, and he should stay.

So, too, should Facile Vega. Indeed, given his dam Quevega won six 2m4f races at Cheltenham and three Stayers' Hurdles at Punchestown, you could argue he has been long overdue a step up in trip. Mullins even gave a mention to the Brown Advisory!

Anyway, you work it out. I need to lie down again. I'll be perfectly happy if I don't get woken up until Tuesday, March 12.

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