'I didn't like the way he hit the line' - Tom Segal questions the worth of some of last weekend's big-race form

It was plain for everyone to see that there was a massive rail bias at Haydock last week. Those drawn on the rail were clearly racing on much faster ground, so how come everyone fell back in love with Little Big Bear?

To my way of thinking he was running in a race where only two horses had any realistic chance of winning given the way the track was riding and he beat Shouldvebeenaring by a length and a half, having been at least three lengths in front of that horse entering the final furlong. Don’t get me wrong, the runner-up is a pretty good horse but he’s not a top-class one and I really didn’t like the way Little Big Bear hit the line.

I thought his head came up a bit as if he was feeling something, and while there is every chance he will improve again on the back of that run, the bookmakers’ overreaction was startling because he will be facing a whole different calibre of horses in the Commonwealth Cup and it’s hugely unlikely he will ever run on a ‘golden highway’ as big as the one on Saturday.

Of course, Little Big Bear can still win at Royal Ascot but odds of around 13-8 on what he did at Haydock are incredibly stingy and I certainly couldn’t imagine backing him at double that price.

Little Big Bear: won the Sandy Lane at HaydockCredit: John Grossick

It’s always a bit unsatisfactory when there are track biases for big races but I’ve always felt they are much more common than people give them credit for and I thought that while everyone was banging on about Haydock, there was just as big an advantage being drawn low or making the running on the round track at the Curragh. Consequently, I was by no means as impressed with the Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Tahiyra as everyone else seems to have been.

A bit like Little Big Bear, when the hot favourite wins a big race the world and his wife go overboard about what a brilliant performance it was without really analysing the race as they would any other.

Drawn on the inside stall, Tahiyra sat in behind her main danger Meditate on what I reckon was the fastest ground and only had to go past one horse. Once again she was much further ahead of the 150-1 shot Comhra at the furlong pole than she was at the line and I don’t think she ran anything like as well as she did at Newmarket in the British equivalent when she might well have been running on her preferred soft ground.

It is worth reiterating that her performance on Sunday doesn’t mean I don’t think she is top class or can’t win many more Group 1s, it’s just that I didn’t think she was anything like as impressive as she was made out to be as the three horses who ran on the rail finished 1-2-3 and all the others had no chance whatsoever.

Arrest can land the Derby for Gosdens

Most people got into racing watching the Grand National, and while that was the same with me, it was Troy’s Derby in 1979 that really got me hooked. Ever since then I’ve been totally fascinated by the Epsom Classic and there was time when I could tell you the 1-2-3 and their pedigrees as well. I’m not quite as big a Derby nerd these days but I still can’t wait for Saturday because I think it’s one of the more fascinating races of recent times.

Trying to work out which colt will take the biggest step forward is the challenge that faces racing fans, and while it would be impossible to rule out a Lazarus-like recovery from Auguste Rodin, even his juvenile form doesn’t look anywhere near as good now as it did at the time and he did run miles below par in the Guineas.

As a pedigree man at heart, I would always start with a relative of Galileo and amazingly he is the father or grandfather of 11 of the 16 entries at the five-day stage. That obviously doesn’t narrow down the winner-finding process that much but his son Frankel is officially the number one ranked sire in the world currently and I think it’s more than likely he wins his second Derby, with Arrest being my preference over Military Order at this stage.

At present Arrest hasn’t shown the class normally associated with Derby winners, but nor had plenty of others before they turned up at Epsom, including my equine hero Troy. I’m a massive fan of the way the Gosdens prepare their Classic horses and I reckon he is going to take a massive step forward on Saturday, although I do also think that Jessica Harrington's Sprewell continues to be underestimated.

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