How to wield trends, win friends and influence people at the Cheltenham Festival

We are mere days away from that fabled festival roar and, right on cue, the stats are emerging from the proverbial woodwork. Up and down the land, people whose only previous experience of trends was wearing a pair of trainers to a wedding and calling it 'Athleisure' are telling you that this horse cannotwin because runners who won their previous start at Les Landes have never taken the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle.

It's easy to mock trends but some things just can't be argued with. My dad once told me to never drive a red car because he had crashed three cars in his lifetime and they were all red. To date I've owned only black or purple cars, and you know how many crashes I've had? Two. That's right, one less than my dad. That's a 33.33 per cent improvement! You can't argue with those margins.

For many races, historical trends can provide a reasonable starting point for the sort of profile a horse needs to succeed, and as I'm nothing if not reasonable, I've decided to get involved. I've unearthed some fascinating trends in the big races that just aren't getting a mention. Let's start with names.