Festival clues at Cheltenham - and one impressive winner could even prove an unlikely Stayers' Hurdle horse

Racing is all about opinions. The sooner we can make an accurate one, the more likely we will be to profit from it. My single aim is to take a view on a race or horse as soon as I can and then allow the subsequent runs to either reinforce my early judgements or prove them inaccurate.

There are occasions when there are simply too many unknowns to make a confident estimation and, in these cases, I will wait for more evidence. If history is a guide, I will get things completely wrong about 20 per cent of the time, but what I do get right will, usually, more than make up for it. 

The single most relevant factor for any of us with the objective of profitable betting will be the price that we wager at. If, over time, we can bet at prices that underestimate the actual chance, we’re very likely to end up with a satisfactory result.